Saturday’s showdown between the Bengals and Broncos will feel like a playoff game because, in many ways, that’s exactly what it is for both teams, especially for the home team.
The Bengals’ playoff hopes are best summarized by Lloyd Christmas’ famous quote from the comedy classic “Dumb and Dumber.” Yes, the Bengals have a chance at making the playoffs, but like Jim Carrey’s fictional character’s chances at courting Mary Swanson, Cincinnati’s odds at getting into the dance are extremely slim.
For that to happen, the Bengals need to win out, the Broncos need to lose out, and the Dolphins and the Colts need to both lose one of their final two games. None of that matters, though, if the Bengals come up short Saturday against a Broncos team that can clinch a playoff berth with a win over Cincinnati.
Here’s how you can follow the action in real time, along with a full breakdown of Saturday’s game and, finally, our prediction.
Where to watch Broncos vs. Bengals
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 28 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
- TV: NFL Network I Stream: fubo (try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Bengals -3.5, OU 49.5 (via BetMGM)
When the Bengals have the ball
We’ve got a matchup between one of the NFL’s best offenses against one of the league’s top defensive units. Cincinnati’s offense has been spearheaded by quarterback Joe Burrow, wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and running back Chase Brown. Denver’s defense has been led by All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II and a defense that has already tallied 51 sacks, with linebacker Nik Bonitto’s 11.5 sacks pacing the group.
Protecting Burrow and avoiding turnovers are going to be key for the Bengals, who have had issues this season doing the former. Burrow was sacked four times during the Bengals’ Week 16 win over the Browns. He’s been sacked at least three times on eight different occasions, a fact that Bonitto and fellow outside linebacker Jonathan Cooper (who is second on the team with 8.0 sacks) are surely aware of.
The Bengals need to limit Bonitto and Cooper’s impact, but they can’t forget about Denver’s defensive line when it comes to pass protection. John Franklin-Myers and Zach Allen have racked up 5.5 and 5.0 sacks this season, respectively.
Cincinnati will have starting left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. back in the lineup after he missed six of the team’s last seven games with a right leg injury. Right tackle Amarius Mims is expected to play despite dealing with a broken hand.
“We’re counting on him,” Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said of his rookie first-round pick. “It’s a key game and he’s been a good player for us.”
Denver’s defense has been stout against the run. They unit is a mediocre 18th in the league in passing yards allowed, however, although the Broncos somewhat make up for that by being ninth in the NFL in touchdown passes allowed and third in interceptions recorded.
You better believe that the Broncos’ primary focus will be on Chase, who is currently on pace to become the 13th receiver in league history to win the “triple crown” by leading the NFL in catches, receiving yard and touchdown catches. Denver’s hopes of stopping Chase will be easier if Higgins doesn’t play. Higgins has been labeled as questionable to play after being limited throughout this week’s practices with ankle and knee injuries.
Cincinnati’s offense is considerably less effective without Higgins; the Bengals are 1-4 without him in the lineup this season. If Higgins is out, Chase will obviously have to step up his game. But Cincinnati will also need clutch efforts from Brown, No. 3 wideout Andrei Iosivas and tight end Mike Gesicki.
With or without Higgins, expect Burrow (who is one touchdown pass shy of 40 for the year) to do what he does, which is litter the sky with footballs. This game will likely come down to how well Denver’s defense can minimize Burrow’s air assault.
When the Broncos have the ball
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels will likely win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but Bo Nix is making him work for the award. Like Daniels, Nix has played extremely well and has helped his team get to within a win of the postseason.
If Nix has an Achilles’ heel, it’s interceptions as he is tied for eighth in the NFL with 11 picks so far. He didn’t throw one in Denver’s Week 16 loss to the Chargers, but he threw three in the previous week’s win over the Colts and two in the Broncos’ Week 15 win over the Browns.
Cincinnati’s defense has been nothing short of horrific for most of the season and is the chief reason why the Bengals are in their current predicament. Ironically enough, turnovers have been the thing that has aided Cincinnati’s defense during the team’s current three-game winning streak. The Bengals have forced 11 turnovers over that span, with seven of those being interceptions. Veteran safety Geno Smith leads the team with five picks, while cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (who struggled earlier this year) has three picks that includes two in the Bengals’ last five games.
Seven other Bengals have recorded a pick, including up-and-coming defensive backs Josh Newton and Jordan Battle. Their improved play as of late has also aided the Bengals during their winning streak.
Cincinnati’s defense basically relies on turnovers and defensive end Trey Hendrickson getting pressure. Hendrickson, who leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks and has almost half of Cincinnati’s entire sack total, is questionable to play as he is dealing with a neck injury.
If Denver contains Hendrickson (assuming he plays) and takes care of the ball, that will infinitely increase its odds of winning Saturday’s game. With Taylor-Britt expected to cover Courtland Sutton, look for Nix to look early and often to fellow wideout Marvin Mims, the former second-round pick who has come on as of late. A Pro Bowl returner as a rookie, Mims recorded a 93-yard touchdown against the Browns earlier this month and had a 53-yard grab during Denver’s Week 16 loss to the Chargers.
Cincinnati’s defense has also struggled against opposing tight ends, so expect solid contributions from the Broncos tight end duo of Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull, especially when the Broncos visit the red zone.
Prediction
Each team has a compelling case as to why they should be predicted as the winner. Denver is the more well-rounded team and has a significant advantage on defense. The Bengals have won three straight, though, albeit all of those wins were against teams with losing records.
For me, this game comes down to Higgins and Hendrickson’s availability. Based on the chance that Higgins will play, I’ll take the Bengals in a close game. I expect Burrow to win more than his share of matchups against a Denver secondary that hasn’t been necessarily good in recent weeks. I’m also banking on Cincinnati’s defense to get at least one turnover off of Nix.
Score: Bengals 27, Broncos 24
