– Canada CPI hits BoC target
– Markets on hold until FOMC meeting results at 2:00 pm
– US dollar opens little changed from close but lower from yesterday.
USDCAD: open 1.3586, overnight range 1.3582-1.3598, close 1.3598, WTI $68.01, Gold, $2572.31
The Canadian dollar is idling ahead of the key FOMC meeting this afternoon. The meeting is being hyped as “momentous” because not only will it kick off the first rate cut in four years, but it could start with a “jumbo” 50 bp cut. 63.0% of futures traders on the CME expect as much, although that number is a tad lower than the 68% reported yesterday. It also means the post-decision FX reaction will be volatile.
A 50 bp cut would knock the greenback, sending it plunging, and the Canadian dollar would rise in concert with the other G-10 major currencies. However, for the Canadian dollar, the rally may be short-lived. A jumbo Fed rate cut would be terrific news for borrowers, but it may also be a warning sign that policymakers are afraid of a hard landing for the economy. That’s not good news for Canada, as a U.S. recession would exacerbate an already weak Canadian economy.
Rising inflation is no longer a worry for Bank of Canada policymakers.
Yesterday, Statistics Canada reported that headline inflation fell to 2.0%, right on target. The drop was more than expected, and it could herald more aggressive rate cuts in the future if the BoC starts becoming concerned about deflation risk.EURUSD saw modest buying interest and edged up from 1.1113 to 1.1140 overnight. The pair received a boost after comments from Lithuanian Central Bank Governor and ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus, who noted that the chances of an October rate cut were “very small.”
GBPUSD rebounded from the previous day’s losses, climbing from 1.3155 to 1.3228 in early New York trading. The rally was driven by stronger-than-expected Core CPI data, which increased 3.6% year-over-year, exceeding both the 3.5% forecast and the previous 3.3%. The Retail Price Index also saw a 0.6% month-over-month rise in August (forecast 0.5%, previous 0.1%). These numbers solidified expectations that the Bank of England would keep interest rates unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting.
USDJPY jumped from 140.32 yesterday to 142.37 overnight before retreating to 141.64 by the start of New York trading. The movement is largely noise ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision. Japan will elect a new Prime Minister on October 1.
AUDUSD ticked up within a 0.6750-0.6785 range, supported by broader US dollar weakness ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Westpac’s leading index, fell by 0.1% month-over-month compared to a 0.04% decline in July.
