The final UFC pay-per-view of the year goes down on Saturday when UFC 310 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The card may not be loaded with mainstream star power, but there are plenty of intriguing fights on the card.
The main event sees an intriguing matchup between flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and UFC debutant Kai Asakura. Pantoja has done well to clean out the 125-pound division, leading the promotion to find an outside force to challenge its champion. Asakura is no pushover, however, as the Japanese fighter has held the bantamweight title with Rizin and defeated some top names on the other side of the globe.
The co-main event may draw more attention than the title fight. Rakhmonov and Garry are two of the top contenders in the sport, regardless of weight class, and face off in a title eliminator. Rakhmonov brings a perfect 18-0 record to the Octagon, which includes a stoppage in every win. Garry is also unbeaten at 15-0. Elsewhere, Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov battle it out in the heavyweight division. And featherweights Movsar Evloev and Aljamain Sterling jockey for title contention in the featherweight division.
After going 3-2 with our best bets for UFC 309, we are sitting with a record of 29-35 on the year. It’s been a rough year for our picks, and we can’t get back to .500 even with a perfect night on Saturday, but we can try to close the year with a bang, and that’s what we’re out to achieve. The betting odds are closer than you might think in some of these main card matchups.
Let’s take a look at our picks for the best bet for each main card fight at UFC 310.
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Nate Landwehr vs. Doo-ho Choi
Nate Landwehr moneyline (-135)
After starting his career 14-1, including three knockout wins to start his UFC career, Choi hit a four-fight winless skid. After three losses and a draw, Choi finally got back in the win column in his most recent outing, scoring a stoppage over Bill Algeo this past July. That fight was Choi’s first win since July 2016. Landwehr is 18-5, including a 5-3 record in the Octagon, and has won four of his five most recent fights. Choi has power, with 12 knockouts in 15 wins, but Landwehr is a tough and gutsy fighter, not incapable of being stopped but tough enough to survive tough spots and keep coming forward. Even after finally getting a win, it feels like Choi should be a bigger underdog here against a guy who has found far more success in recent years and has come into his own as a UFC-level fighter.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie
Bryce Mitchell via decision (-200)
This is a weird fight that sees Mitchell as a huge favorite (-850) and there aren’t too many betting lines that are appealing. Mitchell via decision has the best odds of any possible result, with the next closest being Mitchell by submission at +400. Gracie is coming off a decision loss to Charles Jourdain in an abysmal performance that he blamed on “bad advice” after UFC CEO Dana White said the fight looked as though it was “coming out of a time capsule in 1995.” Mitchell is coming off one of the scariest knockouts of 2023, when he was brutally flattened by Josh Emmett. He has been out of action for almost a full year but got a fairly soft touch for this comeback fight. Gracie’s grappling is probably good enough to not get caught in a submission and to be able to tie Mitchell up enough to avoid a stoppage to strikes, but Gracie’s recent performances don’t give enough reason to think he’ll do enough to get the win, so we’ll roll with Mitchell by decision.
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov moneyline (+295)
Instead of playing it safe in an attempt to end this rough year of picks on a positive note, we’ll roll with taking a sizeable underdog here because the value is too good. Gane does hold a 2021 win over Volkov and Gane’s only two defeats came to two of the best heavyweights in the world (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). That said, Volkov has been one of the most consistent heavyweights in the world for years and keeps himself on the edge of contention even when he suffers a loss. Volkov is on a four-fight winning streak, with stoppages of Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Romanov and Tai Tuivasa, as well as a decision win over Sergei Pavlovich. Volkov is on point with his technique and uses his length well when he’s fighting at his best. Gane is also a supremely technical striker, but Volkov is a very live dog here and at +295 rather than, say, +235, there’s too much value to pass him up if you’re looking for an underdog to ride with on Saturday.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry
Over 2.5 rounds (-180)
This is a five-round welterweight title eliminator between two very different undefeated fighters. Garry can be a force if he’s allowed to get into a groove but also can go into a very safe place and look to outpoint opponents if they don’t make it easy to find that groove. Rakhmonov is a fighter who forces his will on opponents until they break. A fight between those types of fighters usually favors the more aggressive fighter, which would be the expectation here since Garry will be playing defense, which keeps him from getting his offense rolling. Garry will need to land some good shots to get Rakhmonov’s respect and flip the script. It just feels unlikely that Garry can break Rakhmonov from his gameplan, but he is a good enough fighter to get halfway through the fight before Rakhmonov is able to get the finish. It’s also worth noting that all three of Rakhmonov’s most recent fights — against the best fighters he’s faced to date — have gone past the halfway mark of Round 2.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
Alexandre Pantoja moneyline (-250)
Pantoja comes in at the ceiling of the picks we try to offer for best bets, attempting not to go beyond -250. At his best, Asakura is a very good fighter whose all-out striking style can result in fantastic stoppages. He is also a bantamweight trying to cut back down to flyweight for the first time in years. Between making a big cut and fighting in a cage rather than a ring, Asakura could face some real struggles against the champ. Pantoja struggled with Steve Erceg’s boxing in his most recent outing, but Erceg approaches striking in a more technical, less wide-open style than Asakura. Pantoja is good enough to take advantage of the openings Asakura leaves while trying to connect with big flying knees or wild punches. Pantoja should also be able to use the cage as a tool in cutting off Asakura’s attacks and scoring takedowns. Any fight with someone as dangerous as Asakura leaves the possibility of an upset, but Pantoja is the clear favorite for a reason and should be expected to come through with another successful title defense.
Who wins UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
