The Senate Is in Play: Republican Sheehy Polling Ahead of Democrat Tester in Montana Race

A lot of focus has been on presidential candidates, and that’s not without reason; the race for the big chair does tend to take all the oxygen out of the room. But if Donald Trump does manage to Grover Cleveland himself into a non-consecutive second term, he’ll need a friendly House and Senate to get much of anything done. A new poll of Montana residents by Public Opinion Strategies is indicating that the GOP might be flipping that Senate seat in November:

📊 MONTANA poll by @POStrategies for Montana GOP

Senate
🟥 Sheehy: 51%
🟦 Tester (inc): 44%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
Governor
🟥 Gianforte (inc): 53%
🟦 Busse: 34%
—
Attorney General
🟥 Knudsen (inc): 50%
🟦 Alke: 36%
—
August 18-20 | 500 LV | MoE: ±4.38%https://t.co/vQSslMNToA pic.twitter.com/Gd91nXMLIM

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 25, 2024

This survey has Republican Tim Sheehy leading incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by a pretty wide margin, 51 percent to 44 percent. The Republican candidates for Governor and Attorney General are leading by even wider margins. The previous such surveys also had Sheehy maintaining a comfortable lead, according to Real Clear Politics data:

• Rasmussen Reports, 8/13-8/20: Sheehy +5
• KULR-TV (NBC), 8/10-8/12: Sheehy +7
• The Hill/Emerson, 8/5-8/6: Sheehy +2
• Remington Research: 6/29-7/1: Sheey +5

That looks like the odds for a Republican pickup in Montana are pretty good. And this race, like every possible Senate seat pickup, is critical in gaining Republican control of the upper chamber.

See Related: New Poll Shows GOP Has Strong Chance to Flip Multiple Democrat Senate Seats

Bad News for Democrats: GOP’s Chances of Flipping the Senate Are Looking Even Better

Don’t Believe the Hype! The GOP Can Win Yuuuge in the Senate

As far as the presidential race goes, the last time Montana gave its Electoral College votes to a Democrat was in 1992, in Bill Clinton’s first victory. As of this writing, in Montana, Donald Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris, in the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, by 19 points, 56.5 to 37.5. That translates to “safe Republican.”

There are some other interesting tidbits in the Public Opinion Strategies poll. First, the direction of the state:

First of all, generally speaking, would you say that things in Montana are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
34% Right Direction
58% Wrong Track
6% Don’t Know
2% Refused

The question is asking about “things in Montana,” but these kinds of questions tend to reflect the mood of people about the nation as a whole. But more interesting is the key issues question (note, only the top five are presented here):

Next, which TWO of the following issue areas would be MOST important to you in deciding how to vote in the November election? Is it…
Ranked by % 1st Choice
1st             Comb
21%           39%      Illegal immigration
18%           34%      Inflation and the cost of living
8%             28%      Abortion
13%           31%      Jobs and the economy
7%             16%      Education and schools

The highest two – Illegal immigration and inflation/cost of living – are areas in which Republicans generally poll stronger. And illegal immigration is, across the country, a hot issue this year, after almost four years of essentially open borders.

Things in Big Sky Country are looking good for Republicans. Let’s hope that this gets replicated nationwide.