The Meter is back, and Buzzier than ever!
Our BuzzMeter experts in film and general awards-season nerdiness have given us their picks for what they believe will be in contention — or deserves some attention — at the 2025 Academy Awards. Caveat emptor: Some films our panelists pick to get in the race haven’t yet been released to the public. That hasn’t stopped our stalwart insiders from viewing them and preferentially voting in 10 Oscar categories (most points for most likely, or most hoped for, to succeed) for your prognosticating pleasure. We call Round 1 the “Buzzy” round because it mixes what the panelists predict will tickle voters with what they hope will — it’s kind of a Buzzy viewing guide. In Round 2, they’ll predict the Oscar nominations. In Round 3, they’ll pick the winners. See all their picks for Round 1 below.
1. “Anora”
2. “Emilia Pérez”
3. “The Brutalist”
4. (tie) “Conclave”
4. (tie) “Blitz”
4. (tie) “Dune: Part Two”
7. “All We Imagine as Light”
8. “Nickel Boys”
9. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
9. (tie) “The Room Next Door”
9. (tie) “Gladiator II”
12. “A Real Pain”
13. (tie) “September 5”
13. (tie) “The Piano Lesson”
15. “Challengers”
16. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
16. (tie) “Juror #2”
18.(tie) “Sing Sing”
18.(tie) “Wicked”
19. “Here”
This early in awards season, with many possible contenders yet to screen, 22 films get best-picture votes from the panel. However, Round 1’s long-range scout of Oscar season is dominated by four: The American indie, street-level comedy-drama “Anora,” the unique French movie musical (en español) “Emilia Pérez,” German-filmmaker Edward Berger’s English-language papal drama “Conclave” and Brady Corbet’s epic, VistaVision-shot, post-WWII drama “The Brutalist.” The towering trio is all over the BuzzMeter, appearing at or near the top of most of its 10 categories, and all make the list for best picture. In our first round of ranked voting by the panel, “Anora” holds a surprisingly large lead at No. 1 — 16 points over second-place “Emilia” — while “Brutalist” is just one point back from there, in third place. “Conclave” lands in a three-way tie for fourth with Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” and “Dune: Part Two.”
Those top contenders aren’t just there as predictions; they’re panel favorites as well, though Glenn Whipp says, “Payal Kapadia’s tender ‘All We Imagine as Light’ won the Grand Prix prize at Cannes for its visually sensual portrait of female friendship in Mumbai. It’s unforgettable and could be this year’s ‘Drive My Car.’ ”
Among those not on the first-round list is Rachel Morrison’s “The Fire Inside.” Tim Cogshell points out “the first-time director is a veteran cinematographer, the first female director of photography to be nominated for an Academy Award (for “Mudbound”), and her film is scripted by Oscar-winning director Barry Jenkins.”
1. Sean Baker — “Anora”
2. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”
3. Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez”
4. Denis Villeneuve — “Dune: Part Two”
5. Steve McQueen — “Blitz”
6. Ridley Scott — “Gladiator II”
7. (tie) Payal Kapadia — “All We Imagine as Light”
7. (tie) Edward Berger — “Conclave”
7. (tie) James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown”
10. (tie) RaMell Ross — “Nickel Boys”
10. (tie) Mike Leigh — “Hard Truths”
A perhaps surprisingly short list of contenders in Round 1 leaves off notables such as Yorgos Lanthimos (“Kinds of Kindness”), Luca Guadagnino (“Queer” and “Challengers”), Walter Salles (“I’m Still Here”), Pedro Almodóvar (“The Room Next Door”) and such buzzy names as Tim Fehlbaum (“September 5”), Andrea Arnold (“Bird”), Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), John M. Chu (“Wicked”) and Malcolm Washington (“The Piano Lesson”).
But the bigger surprise has to be how far out in front leader Sean Baker is for “Anora”: “Complications arise and Baker delights in each and every one of them, creating a screwball comedy that will end up breaking your heart,” says Glenn Whipp. Baker has nearly double the second-place point total for Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), who is just two in front of French icône Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), who is only one point ahead of Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”). Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) rounds out the Top 5.
German filmmaker Edward Berger looks for his first directing nod after the grand international reception of his “All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022): “Edward Berger, who missed out on this category for ‘All Quiet …,’ (even though the film earned nine nominations), seems a better bet this year,” says Dave Karger.
Anne Thompson thinks a less-heralded film could sneak its director into the category: “If a woman were to knock out one of the men, which is unlikely, it would be Payal Kapadia, with the exquisite Indian Cannes prizewinner “All We Imagine as Light.’ ”
1. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
2. Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl”
3. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”
4. Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door”
5. Angelina Jolie — “Maria”
6. (tie) Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths”
6. (tie) Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked”
8. (tie) Demi Moore — “The Substance”
8. (tie) Amy Adams — “Nightbitch”
Dave Karger calls the lead-actress race “the most exciting of all the acting categories this year.” Mikey Madison (“Anora”) holds a narrow three-point lead for first place over previous winner Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) in Round 1 of the BuzzMeter panel’s voting. One point back from there is Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) bidding to become the first trans performer to be nominated in the category, a scenario Karger calls “a potential (and beyond deserving) history-making nomination.”
Gascón shared the best actress award at Cannes with her three costars, and the strength of those performances might work against her: She’s being submitted as lead and the others supporting, though one could argue costar Zoe Saldaña plays the protagonist. The academy is free to consider performers in any category. If members feel Gascón and Saldaña are on equal footing, could it lead to vote splitting?
Tilda Swinton and Angelina Jolie also get considerable love from the panel, but the other actress with the most impassioned shout-outs in Round 1 just misses the Top 5: “It’ll be hard to resist previous nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who creates an unforgettable angry woman in ‘Hard Truths,’ ” says Anne Thompson. “Jean-Baptiste plays a woman who doles out misery and also, crucially, internalizes it, giving the character a humanity and sadness that’s absolutely transcendent,” says Glenn Whipp.
Among the contenders not making the first-round list: previous winners Kate Winslet (“Lee”) and Regina King (“Shirley”), international standouts Kani Kusruti (“All We Imagine as Light”) and Renate Reinsve (“Armand”), awards darling Zendaya for the still buzzy “Challengers” and reigning champ Emma Stone, reuniting with her “Poor Things” director Yorgos Lanthimos for “Kinds of Kindness.”
1. (tie) Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
1. (tie) Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
3. Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”
4. Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown”
5. Daniel Craig — “Queer”
6. Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II”
7. (tie) Glen Powell — “Hit Man”
7. (tie) Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man”
7. (tie) Tom Hanks — “Here”
Ralph Fiennes has never won an Oscar.
It doesn’t seem possible, but it’s true. In fact, he has been nominated only twice — and not for his endearingly heroic work in “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” his scary performance in “In Bruges” or possibly the funniest turn of 2016 in “Hail, Caesar!” In Round 1 of the BuzzMeter panel’s voting, however, the “Conclave” star is tied for first in the lead race with Adrien Brody, who having won for “The Pianist” more than 20 years ago, Anne Thompson says “delivers a stunning turn as another Holocaust survivor” in “The Brutalist.”
Fiennes is mentioned in the comments of three of our four panelists, i.e.: “Ralph Fiennes seems to be the ‘he’s overdue’ choice this year, and his multifaceted performance in Edward Berger’s ‘Conclave’ is undeniable,” says Dave Karger. Indeed, Thompson says, “Ralph Fiennes is overdue. He earned two Oscar nominations early in his career and was robbed for ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel.’ ”
Rounding out the Top 5 are previous nominees Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) and Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), and another notable yet to receive a nod from the academy: Daniel Craig (“Queer”). Of Domingo, Glenn Whipp writes, “You know how much ‘Sing Sing’ director Greg Kwedar trusts and values Colman Domingo by the number of times he lets the camera linger on his expression.”
Among those not on the first-round list: Emmy winner Jharrel Jerome as real-life, one-legged wrestling champion Anthony Robles in “Unstoppable,” Ethan Herisse in the buzzy, first-person-shot “Nickel Boys” and John Magaro as a young TV sports director thrust into covering the Munich terrorist attack at the 1972 Olympics in the tense “September 5,” none of which had widely screened at press time; Sebastian Stan, who turned in memorable work as a formative Donald Trump in “The Apprentice,” but may suffer from Hollywood’s political exhaustion; and Nicholas Hoult, perhaps for his stressful, layered lead role in “Juror No. 2,” though he has had quite a year, with wildly different performances in “The Order” and “Nosferatu” as well.
And Ralph Fiennes’ two previous noms? For “Schindler’s List” and “The English Patient.” (Crazy, isn’t it? He didn’t win for “Schindler.”)
1. Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson”
2. Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys”
4. Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez”
5. Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters”
6. (tie) Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz”
6. (tie) Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters”
6. (tie) Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave”
9. (tie) Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters”
9. (tie) Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist”
9. (tie) Carol Kane — “Between the Temples”
Danielle Deadwyler leads for “The Piano Lesson,” a status several panelists see as overdue: “Danielle Deadwyler’s performance in ‘Till’ is just one among several of hers that deserved Oscar love; You can’t ignore her in ‘The Piano Lesson,’ ” says Tim Cogshell. “She deserves awards attention yet again.” Dave Karger writes, “If ‘The Piano Lesson’ standout Danielle Deadwyler fails to make the cut after barely missing out two years ago for ‘Till,’ I’m not sure I will recover.”
In second place is Zoe Saldaña, best known for appearing in some of the biggest-grossing films of all time (in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the “Avatar” franchise and the “Star Trek” reboot movies). She won’t be looked at the same way again after unveiling her considerable singing and dancing skills in Jacques Audiard’s film — for which she already shares the Cannes best actress prize with three costars (Selena Gomez also makes the Top 5 here).
Only five points, however, separate her from the next seven on the Round 1 list, with Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) and Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”) also making the Top 5. Interestingly, all three sisters from “His Three Daughters” (Coon, Natasha Lyonne, Elizabeth Olsen) receive votes — each from different panelists. “Each member of this trio does layered, subtle, revelatory work,” declares Glenn Whipp. “Nominate them all?”
Among the notables not making the first-round cut: Leonie Benesch (“September 5”), Michelle Austin (“Hard Truths”), Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”) and one from a film that hadn’t screened when the panel voted: Ariana Grande (“Wicked”). Yes, it’s entirely plausible that both Selena Gomez and Ariana Grande might be nominated in the same category in the same year. Both are deserving (need evidence of Grande’s comic chops? Check out her recent “Saturday Night Live” hosting gig), and … oh, the ratings …
1. Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain”
2. Denzel Washington — “Gladiator II”
3. Stanley Tucci — “Conclave”
4. Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist”
5. (tie) Peter Sarsgaard — “September 5”
5. (tie) Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice”
7. Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson”
8. Clarence Maclin — “Sing Sing”
9. John Lithgow — “Conclave”
10. (tie) Austin Butler — “Dune: Part Two”
10. (tie) Brian Tyree Henry — “The Fire Inside”
10. (tie) Jesse Plemons — “Civil War”
Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), last seen skulking off with the Emmy for his pathetic and hilarious work on “Succession,” leads Round 1. “This category should be won handily by Kieran Culkin, who is funny and scary and moving in ‘A Real Pain,’ ” writes Anne Thompson. Glenn Whipp says, “Kieran Culkin winning an award for playing an extroverted charmer masking a deep well of pain? Didn’t that already happen with ‘Succession’? Sure. Culkin finds new ways to tap into the melancholy underneath the appealing (and sometimes annoying) exterior.”
Culkin’s “Succession” brother/ally/rival, Jeremy Strong, also makes the Top 5 as infamous lawyer/fixer Roy Cohn (yes, that Roy Cohn, “Angels in America” fans) in the making-of-Trump saga “The Apprentice.” They bookend a group with one of the most storied actors of all, Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), respected veteran Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) and noted Italy-searcher Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”), still looking for his, ahem, big night.
Meanwhile, “Jesse Plemons has a single scene in ‘Civil War’; It may be chilling enough for a nom,” writes Tim Cogshell, and there’s precedent for brief appearances walking off with the Oscar. Two performers have won in the supporting actress category for about eight minutes or less of screen time (one for less than six minutes) … can you name them? (Answer below)
Among the notables not appearing on the first-round list are the boys from “Challengers” (Mike Faist, Josh O’Connor), “Babygirl” (Harris Dickinson, Antonio Banderas) and “Queer” (Drew Starkey, Jason Schwartzman); the rest of the cast of “The Piano Lesson” (Samuel L. Jackson gets support from the panel; others include Ray Fisher and Corey Hawkins), John Magaro (“September 5”), previous winners Sean Penn (“Daddio”) and Paul Raci (“Sing Sing”), “Nickel Boys” standout Brandon Wilson and the “Anora” scene stealer, Russian star Yura Borisov.
As to those brief-but memorable performances: Judi Dench won for “Shakespeare in Love” for about eight minutes onscreen; Beatrice Straight of “Network” appeared for only about 5 minutes and 40 seconds … and also won.
1. “Anora” — Sean Baker
2. “The Brutalist” — Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
3. “A Real Pain” — Jesse Eisenberg
4. “Blitz” — Steve McQueen
5. “September 5” — Tim Fehlbaum
6. (tie) “His Three Daughters” — Azazel Jacobs
6. (tie) “All We Imagine as Light” — Payal Kapadia
6. (tie) “Saturday Night” — Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
9. (tie) “Hard Truths” — Mike Leigh
9. (tie) “Shirley” — John Ridley
11. (tie) “The Apprentice” — Gabriel Sherman
11. (tie) “Challengers” — Justin Kuritzkes
Way, way, way out in front is Sean Baker’s hilarious and touching original script for “Anora” — it has more points than the total of the next two scripts atop the Round 1 voting (“The Brutalist” and “A Real Pain”).
“One thing’s for sure: Sean Baker will score his first writing nomination for his wild, profane and ultimately moving ‘Anora’ screenplay,” says Dave Karger. Anne Thompson says, “ ‘Anora’ will be hard to beat, but if any movie can do it, Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s screenplay for ‘The Brutalist’ might be it.” “ ‘The Brutalist’ clocks in around three-and-a-half hours, but it doesn’t feel like there’s one wasted minute,” enthuses Glenn Whipp.
The other Top 5 slots go to “Blitz” and the Munich Olympics drama “September 5.” Tied for the last spot with the “The Apprentice” is the only appearance in the BuzzMeter’s first round for Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers.”
1. (tie) “Nickel Boys”
1. (tie) “Emilia Pérez”
3. “Conclave”
4. “Dune: Part Two”
5. “The Room Next Door”
6. “Deadpool & Wolverine”
7. (tie) “Inside Out 2”
7. (tie) “Sing Sing”
9. (tie) “A Complete Unknown”
9. (tie) “The Wild Robot”
11. (tie) “The Fire Inside”
11. (tie) “Gladiator II”
Tied at the top with awards-season juggernaut “Emilia Pérez” is RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel “The Nickel Boys.” “Conclave” continues to show up all over the BuzzMeter, only one point out of first in the adapted category.
Glenn Whipp’s two cents on “Nickel Boys”: “If you’ve read Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel about the friendship between two Black boys at a brutal Florida reform school, you know it’s not an easy read — or an easy book to adapt for a film. RaMell Ross does a masterful job.”
Writer-director Jacques Audiard’s “Pérez” screenplay is adapted from his own adaptation of a part of Boris Razon’s novel, “Écoute.” Audiard originally wrote it as a libretto for an opera, but later converted it to a big-screen musical with songs that helped shape the screenplay by the French team of Clément Ducol and Camille.
“The unpredictable complexities of ‘Emilia Pérez’ should impress writers, along with some sequels: ‘Dune: Part Two,’ ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ and ‘Inside Out 2,’ ” says Anne Thompson.
1. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
2. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
3. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
4. (tie) “Dahomey” (Senegal)
4. (tie) “Kneecap” (Ireland)
4. (tie) “Sujo” (Mexico)
4. (tie) “Touch” (Iceland)
4. (tie) “Santosh” (United Kingdom)
9. (tie) “Universal Language” (Canada)
9. (tie) “Waterdrop” (Albania)
This season’s international juggernaut is, of course, “Emilia Pérez,” and it’s well out in front in Round 1. The BuzzMeter expects it to follow recent sensations such as “The Zone of Interest,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Drive My Car,” “Another Round” and “Parasite” in dominating this category and picking up several other Oscar nominations.
“Parasite,” of course, became the first non-English-language film to win best picture. Glenn Whipp asks, “Could Jacques Audiard’s ‘Emilia Pérez’ become the second just five years later? It’ll be the heavy favorite to win the international feature prize. And if academy members respond the way that festival audiences have, this crowd-pleasing melodrama might have what it takes to go all the way.”
In second and third place are “I’m Still Here,” from highly regarded Brazilian veteran Walter Salles, and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” from Iranian dissident director Mohammad Rasoulof (who fled to Germany this year after being sentenced to eight years in prison, including whipping, by the Islamic Republic). Then there’s a five-way tie to round out the Top 5. At press time, there were 86 submissions in the category.
Anne Thompson sums it up: “Count France’s ‘Emilia Pérez,’ which will contend in multiple categories as the leader, with German entry ‘The Seed of the Sacred Fig’ and Brazil’s ‘I’m Still Here’ as strong, emotional contenders for the final five.”
1. “The Wild Robot”
2. “Inside Out 2”
3. “Piece by Piece”
4. (tie) “Despicable Me 4”
4. (tie) “Memoir of a Snail”
4. (tie) “Moana 2”
7. “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
8. “Transformers One”
Just edging out the highest-grossing animated film of all time is a quirky, painted-looking parenting parable. DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot,” with its 98% on both Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer (critical response) and Popcornmeter (audience reaction) and $270 million worldwide gross, is one point up on “Inside Out 2” (90% Tomatometer/95% Popcornmeter). Pixar will likely accept the record-breaking $1.7-billion worldwide gross for its sequel to the 2015 Oscar winner as a consolation prize for its second-place finish in Round 1 of the BuzzMeter.
They each have more than double the total of the next feature on the list, the idiosyncratic, Lego-style biopic of superstar songwriter-producer-performer Pharrell, “Piece by Piece.” Following them is a three-way tie: “Despicable Me 4,” “Moana 2” and the Australian claymation for grownups “Memoir of a Snail,” written and directed by Oscar winner Adam Elliot. Also notably making the first-round list: “Transformers One,” with its 89% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
The panelists are not in agreement about the overall quality of the year’s slate, though: “It was a thin year for exceptional animation but not for profitable animation,” says Tim Cogshell. But Dave Karger says, “In a terrific year for animated films, expect stalwarts DreamWorks (‘The Wild Robot’) and Pixar (‘Inside Out 2’) to topline this category alongside the brilliant, genre-spanning ‘Piece by Piece.’ ”
Glenn Whipp writes, “I was leery at the prospect of ‘Inside Out 2.’ The 2015 original was perfect and, frankly, I’m still getting over Bing Bong fading away. But the sequel … was funny, sweet and occasionally profound. And, yes, I found myself wiping away a tear or two. Damn you, Pixar!”
Among those not receiving first-round votes: The upcoming epic “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” and the well-received “The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie,” as well as several international standouts. Among these: The funny and sneakily touching French farce “Linda veut du poulet! (Chicken for Linda!),” a legit sci-fi noir, “Mars Express” (also French), and the unique, quirky, hilariously deadpan and weird, “Ghost Cat Anzu” from Japan.
