Altogether, passing in the NFL is down through two weeks. Crazy, right?
While the dip in league-wide production through the air can’t be pinned on one specific passer, of course, can any of these household names who’s started slowly rebound in Week 3?
Let’s rank five quarterbacks by their likelihood of bouncing back this weekend.
The likelihood labels I’m selecting from here are as follows: Minimal, decent, strong
Performance first two weeks
You might be asking yourself, “Has he really played below his standard through two games?” I’ll answer yes. While I certainly don’t believe Jones is the long-term answer at quarterback for the Giants, completing fewer than 55% of his throws at 5.2 yards per attempt is not what we’ve seen from this veteran passer for most of his polarizing NFL career.
He entered the 2024 season as a career 64.3% completion-rate quarterback with a 6.6 yards-per-attempt average. Things have gotten off to a rather inefficient start, even if Jones and the Giants have set the bar reasonably low. Although he did have two touchdowns without a pick in the narrow defeat at the hands of the Commanders in Week 2, his completion rate was barely over 57%, and his yards per attempt was a pedestrian 6.4.
Week 3 opponent: at Cleveland Browns
There’s plenty you can say about this iterations of the Browns, some good, some distinctly bad. One element of this club that’s undoubtedly positive is its pass rush. Heck, Myles Garrett leads the league — among qualifiers — in fastest time to pressure at 1.95 seconds. Insane.
Za’Darius Smith still brings it at 32 years old. Ogbo Okoronkwo is one of the better depth outside rushers in the AFC, and Cleveland has even gotten early-season contributes from younsters Isaiah McGuire and Alex Wright. While the Browns’ pass-rushing contingent hasn’t been spectacular to start the season — beyond Garrett — this feels like the ideal matchup for Cleveland’s deep group to feast on what is an improved yet still not fully congealed Giants front.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Minimal
With pressure comes bad decisions and inaccurate, hurried throws from Jones. I’d like to think he’s learned from previous mistakes, but he’s more than 60 career starts into his NFL career, and those same issues have continued to arise. I don’t love this matchup for him as a rebound opportunity on the road.
Performance first two weeks
Based on the growing evidence we’ve seen from Watson during his time in Cleveland, are we sure he’s underperformed through two weeks? It’s been worse than expected, in my opinion. A 4.49 yards-per-attempt average? That’s ghastly. To view his Week 2 effort — 64.7% completion at 5.47 yards per attempt without a touchdow or pick — as a clear improvement over his performance Week 1 is all you need to know about how Watson’s 2024 has started. If the Browns would’ve lost to the Jaguars — and hats off to their defense — the chants to bench him would be deafening.
Week 3 opponent: vs. New York Giants
The Giants are currently 30th in EPA per play allowed through two weeks, and they faced the Vikings and Commanders the first two weeks. This New York defense, anchored by legitimate superstar Dexter Lawrence inside, has gotten reasonable yet unspectacular contributions from Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux has barely won his one-on-one matchups. The secondary is mostly devoid of talent, although keep an eye on rookie slot defender Andru Phillips. He’s stood out through two games.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Minimal
This is a cushy matchup for Watson and the Browns offense. Yet I see the quarterback’s bounce-back chances as minimal because it appears as though he’s cooked, physically and mentally. Of course, at his age — not yet 30 — Watson should be in the prime of his quarterbacking career. Yet his shoulder, while medically cleared, doesn’t appear right, and he’s repeatedly opted to run when he’s staring at open receivers.
Performance first two weeks
Hurts has been a liability for the Eagles offense through two weeks, although we saw some splash-play connections between Hurts and A.J. Brown in Week 1’s victory over the Packers in Brazil. What I mean by liability is — Hurts has often decided to run, which has been effective, but it’s come at the cost of never-realized passing yards.
While he completed nearly 77% of his passes against the Falcons, his average depth of target was a lowly 6.6 yards, and he had two turnover-worthy plays to zero big-time throws. While the stats are dismal, at this stage of his career, Hurts needs to elevate those around him.
Week 3 opponent: at New Orleans Saints
Facing the Saints, in the Superdome, seems not exactly fun right now. The defensive line is sneaky good with three ageless wonders — DeMario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu, and Cam Jordan — at the center of it all. But then there’s relative youngsters like linebacker Pete Werner, cornerback Paulson Adebo and defensive tackle Bryan Bresee, who have really brought it in this first two games.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Minimal
Because of the matchup, and with A.J. Brown likely sidelined, I don’t love this matchup for the Eagles from the perspective of Hurts re-emerging. Philadelphia still has one of the better rosters in the NFL, so this game could stay close, yet I think Hurts’ bounce-back chances are minimal.
Performance first two weeks
Goff hasn’t been the Goff we’ve mostly observed in Detroit these first two weeks. He’s been far from dreadful, but more like the post-Super Bowl Rams version of himself than anything else. He’s operated Ben Johnson’s scheme well; it’s just when pressure has mounted his lack of mobility has led to bad decisions. After throwing only two interceptions the last seven games of the 2023 season — counting the playoffs — it’s borderline shocking Goff has already tossed three picks to begin the year.
Week 3 opponent: at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals defense is a rag-tag, upstart group. Doesn’t have household names. It’s loaded with overachievers like deceptively productive outside rusher Dennis Gardeck and twitchy slot corner Kei’Trel Clark. Former first-round off-ball linebacker Zaven Collins has transitioned nicely in a true hybrid role. He can rush the passer from the outside and run with tight ends down the seam. Quality player. Then there’s Budda Baker at safety. Altogether, not a tremendous unit, yet one that’s fared better — 17th in EPA per play — than most expected.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Decent
Being on the road is never easy in the NFL, yet landing in another dome helps here. Without much semblance of a pass rush, the Lions sturdy blocking unit should be able to adequately protect Goff, a quarterback who, last year, had a 116 passer rating while kept clean and a rating of 61 while under duress. I like Goff — and Sam LaPorta — to get back on track in Week 3, although I don’t see a magnificent performance from the veteran thrower. It’ll take more time.
Performance first two weeks
Quietly in Week 1, Prescott wasn’t outstanding a few hours after signing his well-deserved contract extension. It’s just the Cowboys defense suffocated the Browns offense and Watson was so bad that no one really paid attention to a somewhat pedestrian effort from Dallas’ passer.
Then in Week 2, Prescott wasn’t significantly better, although his numbers indicate he was more efficient. The thing is, many of those stats were accumulated essentially in garbage time in the second half, as the Saints’ offensive onslaught started and never stopped in this contest.
Week 3 opponent: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Typically, a matchup with the Ravens defense is a daunting task. Through two weeks this season, not so much. While a game against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid probably skews things a bit, Baltimore is 26th in EPA per play allowed, and Gardner Minshew just completed 30 of 38 attempts for 276 yards with one touchdowns and a pick in the Raiders’ stunning win over the Ravens on Sunday.
Likelihood of bouncing back: Strong
Prescott’s rating was 78.3 against the Saints. Here’s a nugget for you that speaks to Prescott’s rebound capabilities: the last time he had a game with a passer rating under 80, and then didn’t immediately follow that disappointing performance with a rating above 80, came all the way back in 2017. In fact, he’s had 13 regular-season contests with a rating lower than 80 in his NFL career to date, and his average rating the next game in those 13 instances is a whopping 102.2. At home, he’ll bounce back.
