What in the hell was that last week?
Just when I think I have some momentum picking NFL games, here comes a 5-11 week sports betting against the spread. First place in our expert picks is gone. I am also now under .500 with a 51-53-3 record.
That went rotten in a hurry.
My straight-up picks were better at 8-7 to get my record to 59-48 on the season, but the ATS week brings me down.
I feel like this week is a tough one, which means I should do well since I actually liked my picks last week and we saw what happened.
Let’s get back on track. It can’t go any worse.
All odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbook.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Vikings are coming off their first loss and the defense had a rough go of it against the Lions. The Rams dominated the Raiders offense last week, but this is a much-tougher challenge. Look for the Vikings to get back on track here on both sides of the ball. Vikings take it as Sam Darnold plays well.
Pick: Vikings 27, Rams 17
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, likes the Under total in this prime-time matchup. See what the model is saying about the spread at SportsLine.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ravens are playing a second straight road game and they are doing it on a short week. Does it matter? The way the offense is playing and the way Cleveland’s offense is struggling, it won’t. Jameis Winston will likely start for the Browns, but he won’t be able to keep up with the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.
Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 17
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Titans are out on the road for a second straight week. Their quarterback situation remains shaky. That’s not a good thing when facing a team with an offense like the Lions. It will be tough to keep up for Tennessee. The Lions keep rolling up big numbers in a big victory as Jared Goff will stay hot.
Pick: Lions 33, Titans 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is actually for first place in the division. The Colts haven’t played well, and they’ve played a soft schedule, but they are 4-3. How? Anthony Richardson has struggled throwing it, which is a problem. The Texans are coming off a tough loss to the Packers on the road where the offense struggled. That will change here. The Texans get it going on offense again.
Pick: Texans 27, Colts 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Jaguars are back home after two games in London. But this Packers team is a big step up in class from the Patriots team they beat last week. The Packers do have the Lions next week, so they could be looking ahead. But it won’t matter. Jordan Love will light up the Jacksonville secondary, which can’t slow anybody.
Pick: Packers 31, Jaguars 23
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
It looks as if Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back in after missing time with his concussion issues. That should jump-start an offense that has been struggling. The Cardinals are playing on the road on a short week after beating the Chargers on Monday night. That’s a tough situation that is compounded by the return of Tagovailoa. The Dolphins win a blowout.
Pick: Dolphins 29, Cardinals 15
New York Jets (-7) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are back home after a loss in London to the Jaguars. The defense had major issues in that game, which is why Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense can get right here against that unit. Look for the Jets to get a big performance from Rodgers and Breece Hall as they blow out New England.
Pick: Jets 31, Patriots 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Bucs are playing on a short week and they will be without both injured starting receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. That will really challenge the offense. The defense is also coming off a horrible showing against the Ravens on Monday night. But I think the defense will respond. The unit will limit Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense and win a tough game.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 19
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Both of these teams seem to have righted things from their slow starts. The Eagles are playing consecutive road games, which will be a challenge after winning a division game last week. The Philadelphia defense will be challenged by Joe Burrow and the passing game. Look for Burrow to have a big day. The Bengals will take it to even their record.
Pick: Bengals 30, Eagles 20
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Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Saints are a mess right now. The injuries have decimated the team. Derek Carr is likely out again in this one, which is a problem. The Chargers are injured at receiver, but this will be about their run game. The defense can carry them to a victory here as well. They bounce back from their Monday night loss.
Pick: Chargers 26, Saints 10
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This is a long, tough road trip for the Bills. Seattle can score on anybody, which will challenge the Buffalo defense. But I think the Bills offense will really get it going here. Look for a lot of points with the Bills coming away with the victory thanks to a late-touchdown pass from Josh Allen.
Pick: Bills 34, Seahawks 28
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This was supposed to be the game highlighting 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams of the Bears vs. No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels of the Commanders. But Daniels has a rib injury and his availability is in doubt. That would mean Marcus Mariota would start. Without Daniels, the pick is the Bears since they have the better defense. Williams will continue to show improvement.
Pick: Bears 24, Commanders 20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Panthers are playing consecutive road games and they just haven’t played well for the past month. The Broncos have played well and they are coming off a Thursday night blowout of the Saints, so they will be rested. Look for the Denver defense and the running game to win this one easily for the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos 24, Panthers 10
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs are on the road for a second straight week, but the Raiders have injury issues at quarterback. Gardner Minshew, who was benched two weeks ago, is back in as the starter for the injured Aidan O’Connnell. Minshew will struggle against this good Chiefs defense. The Kansas City offense will do enough to get a tough road victory.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 10
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Cowboys are coming off a bye, while the 49ers with all their injuries are in need of one. This San Francisco team is a mess. The Cowboys were blown out the last time out, while the 49ers lost at home to the Chiefs. This will be a game for the 49ers defense to rise up and win it.
Pick: 49ers 23, Cowboys 20
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, fubo try for free)
Russell Wilson gets his second start after winning his first Sunday night and he gets to face a team that is banged up and struggling. It’s the perfect opponent to keep him undefeated. The Giants have offensive issues, which the Steelers will exploit. Wilson will go to 2-0 as the Steelers roll.
Pick: Steelers 27, Giants 13
