We are coming to the end of one of the more fascinating NFL MVP races we’ve seen in recent memory. After some uncertainty through the early portions of the regular season, two stars have separated from the pack, and are vying for the NFL’s top individual award.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson got his shot to shine first in Week 17 on a national stage against the Houston Texans on Christmas, and delivered with a 31-2 victory. As for Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, his squad plays host to the New York Jets this Sunday.
How is the MVP race shaping up? Let’s take a look at the current odds for the top seven favorites to win NFL MVP, via BetMGM.
Lamar Jackson
Could Jackson win NFL MVP for the second year in a row? Many believe he stole the MVP lead with his win over the Texans. Jackson completed 10 of 15 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns, but also rushed four times for a whopping 87 yards and another score. With that performance, Jackson passed Michael Vick for the most rushing yards by a quarterback all time (6,110). It was also Jackson’s 13th career game with a 140+ passer rating, good for fifth-most in NFL history.
Jackson has accounted for 43 total touchdowns this season, which is tied for the most in Ravens history. He is also now 13-0 in the regular season in Week 15 or later, which is the best mark by a quarterback since 1950. Jackson entered Week 17 ranked top five in passing yards (3,787), passing touchdowns (37), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (120.6).
One player who has helped Jackson during this 2024 campaign is running back Derrick Henry. He entered this week ranked second in rushing yards with 1,636, and tied for second with 13 rushing touchdowns. Jackson and Henry have combined for 2,735 rushing yards this season, which is the most by any duo in a season all time.
Josh Allen
Allen entered this year with the most total touchdowns (174) and turnovers (75) in the NFL over the last four seasons. This season, he has 38 total touchdowns compared to just eight turnovers. Allen is close to securing his fifth straight season with 40 total touchdowns. He’s already the only player all time with four straight 40-TD seasons.
Allen has 38 total touchdowns, and just 25 sacks/fumbles/interceptions this season (+13 difference). There are only four other quarterbacks since 2000 that have had a +13 difference or better in that department — and every single one of them won MVP (2004 Peyton Manning, 2007 Tom Brady, 2013 Peyton Manning, 2020 Aaron Rodgers).
Also consider that many believed the Bills would take a step backward in 2024. Buffalo lost so many contributors on both sides of the ball, including Allen’s top two wide receivers. However, this star quarterback has been able to will his teams to victory.
One thing that could end up potentially hurting Allen’s MVP case is Week 18. The regular-season finales are different for the Ravens and the Bills. Baltimore needs a win against the Cleveland Browns in Week 18 to clinch the AFC North and host a playoff game, while the Bills have already clinched their division — and can’t win the AFC’s No. 1 seed — which belongs to the Chiefs.
Jackson is going to play next week, but is Allen? That remains to be seen. Keep in mind he is playing with a broken left hand and has a minor injury to his right arm as well. The Bills’ potential Super Bowl run is more important than Allen winning MVP.
