Can you believe just one week ago we didn’t even know which of the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks would be left out of the playoffs? What a whirlwind week it was. We saw the D-backs eliminated and four others joined them in losing the Wild Card Series. Monday provides us with more entertainment in the form of ALDS Games 2.
As is customary in these parts, let’s grab some gambling plays.
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
There’s an argument to be made that Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball. He looked the part all year and did so again in Houston in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series last week. He’s on an extra day of rest, too, thanks to that day off between Games 1 and 2 in this series. He was worse on the road this season than at home, but it was still a 2.86 ERA. He faced the Guardians once and allowed just one run in seven innings.
Boyd was excellent after the Guardians picked him in late June. He made eight MLB starts, pitching to a 2.72 ERA. I wouldn’t expect him to work deep into the game, but the Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball by a significant margin and they just had five days off before Game 1 with a day off again before Game 2. They can use their entire stable of studly relievers if they so choose.
The play: Tigers under 3.5 runs (-140)
I expect the Tigers’ offense to be held down again. Boyd probably only works three or four innings and then the Tigers get to deal with the likes of Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase all with their batteries at 100%. Detroit doesn’t have enough collective power to count on a big homer and it’ll be so tough to string together a bunch of singles against this pitching staff.
LHP Cole Ragans vs. LHP Carlos Rodón
Ragans wasn’t phased at all in his playoff debut, dominating the Orioles for six innings. He was better on the road than at home this season, too. He saw the Yankees once, giving up two runs on three hits while walking three with seven strikeouts in six innings.
Rodón has been hot down the stretch. He posted a 2.20 ERA in his last five starts. His worst outing came against the Royals, though, allowing four runs (only two earned) on five hits in six innings. He was a much better pitcher at home this season (3.11 ERA vs. a 4.69 ERA on the road).
The play: Rodón over 15.5 outs recorded (+120)
I mentioned that Rodón is going well right now and he hasn’t gone fewer than 16 outs (5 1/3 innings) in a start since Aug. 17. He made 12 second-half starts and only one of them didn’t last 16 outs. I realize with all the days off, it might be tempting for Aaron Boone to pull Rodón after five good innings, but the Yankees manager is a bit more old school in how he lets his starters get deeper into games than some of the newer-school managers. I believe Rodón throws well for five innings and if that’s the case, he’ll surely get an out in the sixth.
I’ve got another, too.
The play: Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)
I know it sounds dumb because he pretty much always looks impressive, but I really liked how Soto looked in his at-bats in Game 1. He was 3 for 5 with a double. He’s in that cushy second spot in the order — maybe Aaron Judge will start hitting in the playoffs — and the time he saw Ragans, he hit a home run. That was less than a month ago.
