Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is slated for July 30, meaning teams have just a few days left to wrap up their summer shopping for the stretch run. Part of the fun of this time of the year is leaning into reckless speculation. We’re not immune to it ourselves. In turn, we always like to attempt to rank which teams are the favorites to land this or that star.
As the headline indicates, that’s exactly what we’ll be doing in the article below: ranking all 30 teams based on what we perceive to be their chances of employing current Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. come Aug. 1. For those unfamiliar with Robert, here’s what we wrote about him and his chances of being traded earlier this month:
You’re not alone if you get some Eric Davis vibes from Robert. He’s an incredible talent, a highly skilled center fielder with a track record of well-above-average offensive production. Yet his durability concerns are more significant than even Davis’ were. Robert has played in more than 100 games just once in his first four seasons (he did play in 56 of 60 games in 2020). He needs 65 more appearances to get there this year, and we wish we could write that we were confident about it happening. Health is often described as the sixth tool; it’s the one thing that’s preventing Robert from being accepted as one of the best players in the league. As such, it’ll be interesting to see how the market shakes out for Robert, and whether the final cost comes in lower than anticipated.
Now, let’s get to the reason why you clicked in the first place. Keep in mind, though, that these exercises are always more of an art than a science.
Tier 1: No chance
30. Miami Marlins
29. Colorado Rockies
28. Oakland Athletics
27. Los Angeles Angels
26. Toronto Blue Jays
Here we have the league’s worst teams (with one obvious exception). These clubs either have begun to sell or will begin to sell off players over the coming days, leaving them in no position to seriously pursue a player of Robert’s caliber. Let’s keep it moving.
Tier 2: Wouldn’t make sense
25. Washington Nationals
24. Texas Rangers
23. Chicago Cubs
22. San Francisco Giants
21. Cincinnati Reds
20. Tampa Bay Rays
19. Detroit Tigers
18. New York Mets
17. Boston Red Sox
Here we have a (large) collection of teams who we have a hard time imagining chasing Robert for this reason or that. In some cases, the teams have full outfields and should use their resources to shore up other weaknesses. In other cases, the teams look like potential sellers heading into the deadline. In rare cases, both of those statements apply.
Tier 3: Do they have the means?
16. Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Houston Astros
14. Kansas City Royals
13. Minnesota Twins
12. Milwaukee Brewers
11. Arizona Diamondbacks
Now we’re into the interesting half of the league. As fun as it would be to see the Pirates, Twins, Royals, or Brewers chase down Robert, we’re not sure they’d have the budget clearance to do so. The Astros, meanwhile, find themselves lumped in here because of their lacking farm system. There’s no doubt Dana Brown will do what he can to help put Houston over the top, but we suspect that his energy might be focused on adding a pitcher anyway.
Tier 4: Would make some sense, but
10. Cleveland Guardians
9. Seattle Mariners
8. New York Yankees
7. San Diego Padres
6. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Atlanta Braves
You can kind of talk yourself into any of these teams entering the Robert bidding. For the sake of clarity, we’ve addressed each of the reasons we kept them out of the top tier. It’s difficult to bet on the Guardians ever making a big splash. Besides, Tyler Freeman has played better than we expected. Even with Julio Rodríguez’s injury, we imagine the Mariners will try to spread their resources out to add multiple hitters instead of one big bat. An outfield of Robert, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto would pack serious star power, but the Yankees should probably use their energy addressing their infield and rotation. The Padres don’t have an actual need for Robert, per se, but you can’t blame us for putting them in this tier on account of A.J. Preller’s unpredictability. Robert would represent a clear upgrade over Michael Siani and Dylan Carlson, but the Cardinals might not be eager to add yet another outfielder to their collection. The Braves are without both Michael Harris II (for the time being) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (for the season), and Lord knows they could use some offensive help — would they prefer another arm instead?
Now, let’s get to the teams we consider to be the actual contenders to employ Robert come Aug. 1.
The Orioles have wide-open books and a seemingly endless supply of quality prospects. Robert would lengthen their lineup (replacing Cedric Mullins in the process) and generate even more excitement about this club and its direction under new owner David Rubenstein. Mike Elias and company have been careful about trading prospects for veterans, however, and if they do make a splash, it might be better served coming in the form of another top starting pitcher.
3. Chicago White Sox
We may as well acknowledge that there’s a chance Robert stays in place through the deadline. His contract runs through the 2027 season (the last two years are club options), meaning that the White Sox can take their time with a trade if they’re so inclined. Given that the White Sox have other business to handle, including moving breakout lefty Garrett Crochet, it’s at least something worth putting on the radar. There’s also, we regret to write, a chance Robert gets hurt over the coming days and compromises his availability. We sure hope that doesn’t happen — for his sake above all — but let’s face it: he has a lengthy injury history.
When it comes to a team as good as this Phillies squad, it’s hard to find real areas to upgrade at the deadline. It just so happens that the Phillies have an obvious need for a center fielder, and Robert appears to be the best one available. Top baseball operations executive Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from making a blockbuster trade if he feels it can help propel his team toward a World Series win. Why would he change now? That’s why there’s only one team we think is more likely to pursue Robert than Philly.
People get tired of seeing the Dodgers always ranked atop of these lists. We get it. But also, what can we do? They have the prospects and the money; they have the need for an impact center fielder; and they have the kind of front office that is more than willing to make a bold move in the name of securing another World Series victory parade. There are already rumors out there about how the Dodgers would like Robert as part of a larger package deal — one that potentially also includes Crochet — and we suspect that they’re going to continue to pursue scenarios with the White Sox all the way up until either a deal gets done or the clock strikes zero. For all those reasons, we have the Dodgers at No. 1.
