Lessons From the Last Week of TikTok

Everyone from Joe Biden to Elon Musk is looking for a way to keep TikTok operational in the US beyond this Sunday, when under US law owner ByteDance must sell or shut down the platform. If the ban really happens – and as of Friday morning, oddsmakers in online betting markets still viewed that as the most likely outcome – it will instantly upend the lives and finances of millions of creators who have built careers on TikTok.

They – and the fashion and beauty brands that increasingly depend on these creators for marketing – can’t say they weren’t warned. President Donald Trump floated the idea of shutting TikTok down as far back as the summer of 2020. Those efforts came to nothing, but the idea percolated for years, culminating in the bipartisan legislation passed last year that ordered ByteDance to divest or shut down the platform by Jan. 19.

Even so, few took the prospect of a ban seriously until last month. According to Google, there was minimal search traffic around the ban until Dec. 6, the day a US Appeals Court upheld it, leaving TikTok’s fate in the hands of the Supreme Court. On Friday, the justices ruled that the law would be allowed to go into effect, writing in an unsigned opinion that though TikTok offers “a distinctive and expansive outlet for expression, means of engagement, and source of community … divestiture is necessary to address its well-supported national security concerns.” However, just before the ruling was released, the Associated Press reported that the Biden administration does not plan to enforce the ban, which would kick responsibility to the incoming Trump administration.

Even today, less than 48 hours before TikTok could wink out of existence, it’s still mostly business as usual on the app. You’ll still find creators publishing fit checks, cooking videos and comedy sketches — though some have begun to include a note in their captions to follow them on Instagram or YouTube.

“There has been a feeling from creators and brands like you know it’s not going to actually happen,” said Scott Sutton, CEO of influencer marketing firm Later Media. “Even still, people feel like there’s a high likelihood that some intervening action happens.”

That head-in-the-sand approach, however, may end up having a high cost for the many creators for whom TikTok is their primary, or only way of connecting with their audience. The same is true for many fashion and beauty brands that depend on these creators to reach young consumers.

TikTok’s rise in the US, which began in earnest during the early days of the pandemic, led to an explosion of professional influencers or content creators; 27 million people in the US today are paid content creators, 44 percent of them do it full-time, according to ​​a report from Market Research Institute International. Influencer marketing spend is growing more quickly than social media ad spend, according to analytics firm eMarkerter.

Brands that have used TikTok as their primary marketing channel will need to make adjustments. As Instagram ads became more expensive and less effective, TikTok offered an alternative. Many brands invested heavily in the platform, both through partnerships with TikTok-native creators and through other levers like TikTok Shop, to grow their businesses. They will have to look to other platforms, as well as perhaps rethink creator relationships if their partners don’t have as substantial a presence elsewhere. Virality, much harder to obtain on other platforms, will likely mean fewer hit products and overnight sensations, and they’ll have to get more creative when it comes to identifying trends, too.

But it’s likely TikTok-native creators that will feel this impact most intensely. Back during the pandemic, it served as a springboard for countless budding creators, offering them a fresh start and a degree of anonymity they didn’t have on Instagram, where they were already followed by their friends and family. That, plus the casual nature of posts on the app, encouraged people who had previously been too nervous to take the public leap of faith that’s often required to become an influencer to take the plunge.

More than that, its much touted algorithm could mint new viral superstars overnight. It was a welcome change from Instagram, where creators have long complained that building a following means committing to a long, slow grind. TikTok has also offered more perks to creators, like its creator fund and later, the TikTok Creativity Program, both of which paid creators for videos that reached a certain engagement threshold. Instagram, meanwhile, closed down a program that paid influencers for ads placed on their profiles at the start of this year.

But because of the comparative ease of building a following on TikTok, many creators stuck exclusively to the platform, where they saw rewards for their efforts, and didn’t invest in diversifying their businesses and growing their following elsewhere. There are plenty of creators with tens or hundreds of thousands of followers on TikTok, but less than 1000 on Instagram. The former might allow some of them to earn a living; the latter is too small to monetise at all. Even creators like Audrey Peters, who spent the last year focused on growing her Instagram, where she now has over 217,000 followers (compared to over a million on TikTok), will likely feel some impact.

“My rate is not going to be as high, which means I’d have to work more for a smaller rate,” she said.

With the TikTok ban, brands and creators alike are learning a hard lesson: There’s real risk in relying too heavily on one platform or channel. It’s one that longtime influencers in the space have learned firsthand time and time again. In 2015, Pinterest abruptly stopped allowing users to post affiliate links, cutting off an important revenue stream. Growth on Instagram was reliable until it removed the chronological feed in 2016. When the app began prioritising video in the late 2010s, influencers who had predominantly posted perfectly curated images had to change course.

That’s a big part of why platforms like Substack — and paid subscriptions — have been growing in popularity in recent years. They offer influencers a more direct relationship with their audience, and an income stream that doesn’t rely on the engagement they receive on a platform that oftentimes, hasn’t proved to have their interests at the core of their strategy. Creators are already trying to find a TikTok alternative, with another Chinese-owned app, RedNote, emerging as a popular option (though given its ownership, that too could end up seeing the same fate).

In many ways, TikTok is more an entertainment platform than a social media one, and as such, it rewards creators — who make entertaining content for users to consume — more than influencers — those with the sway to convince people to make purchases. It’s only since the app’s rise began at the start of the decade that the former term has become the default for those earning a living online.

But the looming TikTok ban is further evidence that if you’re going to make money on social media, influence really is the ultimate commodity. No matter how great your content is, if you don’t have the influence necessary to bring your followers to multiple platforms, you may not have much of a business at all.

THE NEWS IN BRIEF

FASHION, BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY

Richemont’s sales soar 10%. The Americas and Europe drove the surprisingly strong performance, with purchases of expensive jewellery offsetting weak watch sales. The results lifted shares of Richemont by more than 15 percent, to a record high.

Kering sells majority stake in three Paris properties to Ardian. The deal will net the struggling Gucci owner €837 million ($861 million). A new joint venture with Ardian will hold three Kering properties — at Hôtel de Nocé on place Vendôme, and two buildings on Avenue Montaigne. Kering will retain a 40 percent interest.

US Supreme Court upholds law banning TikTok. The justices ruled that the law did not violate the US Constitution’s First Amendment protection against government abridgement of free speech. TikTok plans to shutter US operations of the app on Sunday barring a last-minute reprieve.

Brunello Cucinelli’s revenues rose 12 percent in 2024. The group, the first in the luxury sector to report 2024 preliminary sales, said its revenues rose to €1.28 billion ($1.31 billion) last year, boosted by a double-digit sales growth in the Americas and Asia. In the fourth quarter alone, turnover increased by 11.6 percent.

Macy’s trims sales outlook after holidays didn’t deliver. America’s largest department-store operator said it’s forecasting net sales in the current quarter to be at or slightly below the $7.8 billion to $8 billion executives were expecting as of last month. The company maintained its outlook for earnings per share, according to a statement published Monday.

Lululemon regains momentum on strong holiday sales. The retailer expects revenue to rise between 11 and 12 percent and be in the range of $3.56 billion to $3.58 billion. Shoppers “responded well to our product offering” during the holiday season, CFO Meghan Frank said.

Zalando says its full-year profit to exceed own target. Zalando now anticipates adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of around €510 million ($525 million). Preliminary figures show gross merchandise volume in the year rose by 4.5 percent to €15.3 billion, while revenue grew by 3.9 percent to €10.5 billion

Abercrombie shares drop despite strong holiday sales. The New Albany, Ohio-based retailer said it expected fourth-quarter net sales growth to come in around 7 percent to 8 percent, surpassing its guidance in the range of 5 percent to percent. The company also increased its full-year net sales growth outlook to around 15 percent.

US bans imports from 37 more Chinese companies over Uighur forced labour. The companies include Huafu Fashion Co., one of the world’s largest textile manufacturers, and 25 of its subsidiaries, which the US has linked to forced-labour practices in China’s cotton industry. The latest additions bring the total number of companies on the list to 144.

China says PVH engaged in “improper” conduct related to Xinjiang. In September, China announced an investigation into PVH for suspected violations of market trading principles regarding Xinjiang-related products. The ministry plans to summon PVH in the near future.

US retail sales broadly advance, capping a solid holiday season. The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.4 percent after an upwardly revised 0.8 percent gain in November. The figures point to a consumer that held up well in the holiday season, supported by wages rising faster than prices.

India to promote its textiles as a political crisis hits Bangladesh’s exports. India aims to boost its textile and garments industry in next month’s budget with financial support, tariff cuts on key inputs and incentives to produce locally, two government sources said. An ongoing political crisis in neighbouring Bangladesh, has prompted global retailers to explore alternatives.

Fosun’s jewellery unit Shanghai Yuyan considers second listing in Hong Kong. Already listed in Shanghai, the company may seek to raise more than $300 million in the offering. Shanghai Yuyuan’s mainland-listed shares are down about 6 percent this year, giving the company a market value of 23.5 billion yuan ($3.2 billion).

Ikea retailer to invest $1 billion in recycling firms. The investment from Ingka Group will help recycling companies better manage waste created by discarded Ikea furniture. Ingka Investments has earmarked around two-thirds of the money — €667 million — for new investments into textile recycling companies.

Grace Ling opens first store in New York. The designer’s first retail location will be located between Hudson yards and Times Square in Manhattan. The 2,000-square-foot space will serve as a showroom for Ling’s couture clients, which include the likes of Kim Kardashian and Jennifer Lopez.

Paris’ Louvre museum to stage its first fashion exhibition and fundraising gala. Titled Louvre Couture, the presentation will feature 71 looks and 30 accessories which align closely with the decorative arts in craftsmanship, style and ornamentation. The gala event will take place on March 4 to coincide with the beginning of Paris Fashion Week.

THE BUSINESS OF BEAUTY

Touchland unveils first fragrance collection. This is the first category expansion for the hand sanitiser brand, which has launched a line of eight skincare-infused hair and body mists. The fragrances will take over 2400 end-cap displays in Ulta Beauty and Sephora stores. This year, the brand will also expand to Sephora in Canada and the Middle East.

Sephora debuts Hulu series featuring Chappell Roan, Victoria Monét and Becky G. Called “Faces of Music,” the three-episode series premieres on Jan. 22. In each episode, the singers will share their beauty routines and style inspirations.

PEOPLE

Oliviero Toscani dies at 82. The photographer lensed the provocative advertising campaigns — addressing social issues including race, religion, sexuality and war — that helped make Benetton one of the world’s biggest clothing brands. The photographer had revealed that he was suffering from amyloidosis.

Proenza Schouler founders depart the brand. Jack McCollough and Lazaro Hernandez are stepping down from their roles as creative directors, effective Jan. 31. A successor has yet to be named and operations will continue without interruption, according to the statement.

Christie’s names new CEO. Bonnie Brennan, who’s been at the auction house for the past 13 years, is set to become CEO of Christie’s on Feb. 1. Brennan replaces Guillaume Cerutti, who will assume oversight of the artistic and cultural activities of Artemis.

MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY

TikTok Ban fears drive US users to other Chinese apps. A pair of Chinese-made social apps, Xiaohongshu and Lemon8, have taken over the top two positions on Apple Inc.’s iPhone download charts in the US. Chinese stocks linked to Xiaohongshu rose on Tuesday.

TikTok prepares for US shutdown from Sunday. Under TikTok’s plan, people attempting to open the app will see a pop-up message directing them to a website with information about the ban, people familiar with the matter said. The company also plans to give users an option to download all their data.

GQ and Bode to host Super Bowl fashion show. The sports-meets-fashion event, including a runway show, will take place in New Orleans ahead of the American football championship on Feb. 7. The show will present the 2025 Bode Rec collection of both menswear and womenswear, donned by models, athletes and friends of both the fashion house and publication

Compiled by Yola Mzizi.