The first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs is officially in the books with eight teams moving on to the conference semifinal round. A pair of Game 1 matchups are on the Monday NBA schedule, one game from each conference. In the West, the Denver Nuggets will face the Oklahoma City Thunder at 9:30 p.m. ET in a battle between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, the top two MVP candidates in the league. The Thunder are favored by 9.5 points and the over/under is 227 points in the latest Thunder vs. Nuggets odds. Oklahoma City is 56-28, while Denver is 42-46 against the spread this season.
SportsLine expert Jimmie Kaylor has broken down the Nuggets vs. Thunder odds and just revealed his top picks and NBA player props. Combining his five picks into an NBA Same Game Parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook would result in a payout of +900 (risk $100 to win $900). Kaylor has been profitable as a handicapper across multiple sports since joining SportsLine, and his background as a former college and NFL player gives him a unique perspective when building his fantasy lineups and locking in his betting picks. Now, here are the Kaylor’s five picks in his Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1 SGP on Monday:
Denver Nuggets +9.5 (-110)
The Thunder are the better team here, make no mistake about it. That said, this Nuggets team still has championship pedigree, and their core has a significant postseason experience advantage over the Thunder. I have OKC projected to win this game by 4-6 points on Monday night.
Michael Porter Jr. 13+ points
This matchup is far more favorable for Porter than the Los Angeles Clippers were in the first round. If Porter gets hot, he could easily score 20+ points here. Look for the 26-year-old veteran to score at least 15 points in Game 1.
Jalen Williams 18+ points
Like Porter, I really like this matchup for Williams. The former Santa Clara standout averaged 23.3 points per game in Oklahoma City’s first round series, and Denver doesn’t have a player in its core rotation that matches up well with him. I fully expect Williams to score 20+ point sin Game 1.
Over 227 points
The last time these teams met in the regular season they combined to score 267 points. I don’t expect an offensive output on that level, but I have a projected floor of 230 points for this game. Both sides can erupt on the offensive end, so I anticipate this being a high-scoring affair.
Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double
Jokic averaged a triple-double during the regular season. He followed that up by averaging 24.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 10.1 assists per game in Denver’s seven-game first round series win over the Los Angeles Clippers. The sample size is there to suggest Jokic will continue to post triple-doubles at a historic rate.
Want more NBA picks for today?
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You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 116-85-1 roll on his last 202 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than units. You can also check out Nuggets vs. Thunder picks from 10,000 simulations.