After enduring almost a quarter-trillion dollar hit to their market value in recent months, Europeâs luxury firms may see their stock-market clout wane further as Chinaâs downturn worsens.
Once seen as Europeâs answer to the US âMagnificent Sevenâ tech megacaps, shares in companies producing high-end clothing, handbags and jewelry are languishing, sapped by a spending slump. Even more ominous are signs that Chinaâs rich, who once flocked to upscale boutiques in Paris, Milan and Hong Kong, may not return, their appetite for pricey items extinguished by the economyâs downward spiral.
âThis year is more volatile and more painful because it comes after this excessive growth,â Flavio Cereda, an investment manager at GAM UK Ltd. said, referring to the period immediately after the pandemic when consumers liberated from lockdowns splurged on shopping and travel.
For Britainâs iconic raincoat maker Burberry Group Plc, itâs culminating in ejection from Londonâs FTSE 100 stock index, with its market value down 70 percent in the past year. While itâs the only major brand to lose its index slot, an gauge of luxury shares compiled by Goldman Sachs has shed $240 billion in value from a March peak.
Gucci-owner Kering SA and Hugo Boss AG are the worst hit, shedding almost half their value in the past year. Kering, once a top 10 stock in Franceâs CAC 40 index, now ranks 23rd. And industry giant LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, which was Europeâs largest company by market cap a year back, has slid to second place.
The deflation of the post-pandemic spending bubble was evident in recent earnings reports. Kering, Burberry and Hugo Boss issued profit warnings, while at LVMH, quarterly organic revenue at its crucial leather-goods unit grew just 1 percent, versus 21 percent a year earlier. Only brands catering to the ultra-wealthy, such as Hermès International SCA and Brunello Cucinelli SpA, escaped the full force of the earnings downturn.
âSlower for longerâ
GAMâs Cereda, who co-manages a fund investing in luxury stocks, is hopeful sales will pick up next year, at least to the âmid-single-digitâ levels that he says represent the sectorâs long-term trend.
But what if weaker revenue and tighter profit margins are the new normal? Some reckon that could be the case.
UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz describes the luxury-sector outlook as âslower for longer.â Trimming her estimates for organic sales growth in 2025 and the second half of 2024, Pusz predicted that âthe industry seems to be entering its own specific cycle, following a few years of a boom with high pricing.â
And newsflow around the fallout of Chinaâs slowdown seems to back that verdict.
Tiffany & Co., LVMHâs premium jewellery brand, is seeking to halve the size of its flagship Shanghai outlet, Bloomberg reported. Hong Kongâs luxury malls, which once lured big-spending Chinese, are nearly empty. And in Switzerland, watchmakers are seeking state aid to counter dwindling exports.
Many analysts share Puszâs view, cutting estimates for profit and share prices. Bank of America Corp.âs Ashley Wallace says consensus expectations for the second half of the year may be too high, while Morgan Stanleyâs Edouard Aubin names LVMH and Richemont as particularly vulnerable to the China slowdown, reducing his share targets for the firms.
Some see a silver lining in slightly more palatable share valuations. While the MSCI Europe Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods Index still trades at a hefty premium to the MSCI Europe gauge, itâs well off the boom-time levels of 2021.
âThe sector clearly has competitive advantages longer term, so downcycles are probably the best time to invest,â Morningstar analyst Jelena Sokolova said. She sees an opportunity in Kering, predicting that strong brand recognition will enable Gucci to capitalise when the turnaround finally materializes.
GAMâs Cereda however, prefers the highest-end luxury names such as Hermès.
âYou donât want to own brands that donât have brand heat, and you donât really want any meaningful exposure to the aspirational consumer,â he said. âAnd you certainly donât want any real exposure to the aspirational consumer in China.â
By Kit Rees. With assistance from Michael Msika.
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Disclosure: LVMH is part of a group of investors who, together, hold a minority interest in The Business of Fashion. All investors have signed shareholdersâ documentation guaranteeing BoFâs complete editorial independence.