Derrick Henry set to reach 10,000 career rushing yards; will Ravens RB be last NFL player to hit milestone?

I hope you bought Derrick Henry stock this offseason or early this season because it is skyrocketing in the last two weeks. He leads the NFL in rushing this season (480 yards) and is on pace for over 2,000 after back-to-back 150-yard rushing games to help get the Ravens back to .500 at 2-2. 

Henry is also on the cusp of joining the exclusive 10,000-yard club on Sunday against Cincinnati as he sits at 9,982 rushing yards. He will be the 32nd player to join the 10K club, and he just might be the last. Think about it. The last player to join the club was Marshawn Lynch on Dec. 31, 2017. It’s been almost seven years. Almost one player joined the club per year from 1981-2012.  It’s the longest drought without a player reaching 10,000 rushing yards since the first pair started the club, Jim Brown in 1964 and O.J. Simpson in 1977. 

Players with 10,000 rushing yards in NFL history

There’s a reason for that. While rushing is making a comeback early this season, we aren’t seeing a return of the bell-cow running back. 

There were 24 individual seasons with 300-plus rushes in the 2010s, down from 87 in the 2000s. 

Last year the league’s top five rushers averaged 1,188 rushing yards, the fewest by the NFL’s top five in a non-strike season since 1974 when the league played a 14-game schedule, not today’s 17 games. 

The opportunity for the game’s elite talents at running back just aren’t there. There were 20 individual seasons where players accounted for at least 70 percent of their team’s rushes in the 2010s. That figure was 58 in the 2000s. Six players hit that alone in the year 2000, compared with zero last year. 

Henry is the last of a dying breed. He’s had at least 60 percent of his team’s carries in each of the last five seasons, including four straight with at least 70 percent from 2019-22. 

Individual seasons since 1990

This is why if you eyeball the list of most rushing yards among active players you see so few viable options to follow Henry into the 10,000-yard rushing club.

Let’s run through the best options. I’m bypassing Ezekiel Elliott. He’s almost 1,000 away, but his rushing yards per game average has declined in eight straight seasons. He’s down to career lows in yards per rush (3.4) and yards per game (20.3) this year. 

Christian McCaffrey probably entered the year as the top candidate coming off last year’s rushing title, still in his prime at age 28 needing nearly 4,000 yards to join the club. He could reach that at the end of 2028 at his current career pace (68.0 rushing yards per game and 13 games per season), but now his health is a huge question mark with Achilles tendinitis in both legs. I can’t endorse his candidacy.

Jonathan Taylor is probably the best candidate. He averages 86.5 career rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest average in NFL history and highest among active players (next highest is Nick Chubb who is not on my list due to his leg injury). He’s still 25 and could reach 10,000 at the end of 2028 based on his current pace. However, his 2021 season (1,811 rushing yards) is looking like an outlier and he’s missed 13 games in the previous two seasons. I’d say his chances are lower than 50-50. 

Lamar Jackson is the darkhorse. He’s 27 years old and has 5,566 yards. He would hit 10,000 midway through 2029 at age 33 based on his current pace. However, I would expect him to hit a wall in his early 30s like other elite running quarterbacks. If you cut his pace from 61.8 rushing yards per game to 40, it would take him until 2032 when he’s 36. 

Bijan Robinson is absurdly talented but we haven’t seen enough from him yet to make a projection. I also left off Saquon Barkley. He’s 27 years old and sits at 5,646 rushing yards. He is too injury prone, though, and has never rushed for more than 1,312 yards in a season. 

Top candidates for 10,000 rushing yards

There are a lot of reasons why Henry could be the last player to ever reach 10,000 rushing yards. One I didn’t mention was more and more talented athletes choose to play quarterback and wide receiver, rather than running back. 

Could there be another alien like Henry that comes along and beats the odds, though? Sure. I’m positive that 10 years ago nobody thought somebody like Shohei Ohtani would come along and have a 50-50 season after striking out 200 batters in a season as a pitcher. 

When it comes to sports, you never know, but recent history paints a gloomy future for the 10,000-yard rushing club, so appreciate Henry’s milestone all the more!