Despite being the two-time defending Super Bowl champions and the only undefeated team in the NFL and having three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes under center, the Kansas City Chiefs were not the team most likely to win the Super Bowl entering Wednesday, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. That honor — or burden, depending on the point of view –belonged to the Buffalo Bills, who had a 15.7% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy, slightly better than the Chiefs, at 14.5%.
But that all changed on Wednesday with the reported trade of receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the Titans to Kansas City. The Chiefs, who have been shorthanded at wideout with the injuries to top pass catchers Marquise Brown (out for the season) and Rashee Rice (most likely out for the season), reportedly will send a conditional fifth-round draft pick to Tennessee for Hopkins.
Though the 32-year-old Hopkins has just 15 catches for 173 yards and one touchdown this season, he has a résumé that’s better than those of the other Kansas City receivers combined. He has three first-team All-Pro honors, five Pro Bowl selections and seven 1,000-yard receiving seasons.
The acquisition of Hopkins makes the Chiefs the team to beat for the Lombardi Trophy, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says Kansas City now has an 18% chance of winning the Super Bowl. That’s up from 14.5% before the trade and more than the Bills, who are now down to 15%. The Ravens, who had the third-best probability at 14.3% prior to the trade, still rank third but are now at 13%.
| Before trade | 13.1 | 91.0% | 99.7% | 26.0% | 14.5% |
| With DeAndre Hopkins | 13.3 | 93.1% | 99.9% | 31.2% | 18.0% |
“Hopkins is a big addition for the Chiefs,” Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model, said about the trade. “Hopkins will not only help Mahomes’ completion percentage and touchdown production but also cut down on Mahomes’ high interception rate by providing a security blanket at receiver that Mahomes does not have due to injuries.”
Though Hopkins is well past his prime, he immediately upgrades a Kansas City passing game that has struggled this season. The Chiefs are averaging just 221.5 passing yards per game, which is the team’s fewest since the fall of 2015 when Mahomes was still a sophomore at Texas Tech.
Mahomes’ issues this season have served as the fodder of talk shows across the country. He has thrown more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six) and ranks 23rd in the league in passer rating (82.5), behind the likes of Geno Smith, rookie Drake Maye and former first-round bust Sam Darnold.
As for the Chiefs’ Week 8 game on Sunday against the Raiders, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for one team to cover 53% of the time. However, that game isn’t one of the two with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 8. You can find those top-tier Week 8 NFL picks at SportsLine.
