FRISCO, Texas — Pick a time at any point in the last three seasons from 2021 to 2023, and the Dallas Cowboys (3-3) facing off against the San Francisco 49ers (3-4) meant two high-powered offenses getting ready to go toe to toe.
In 2024, this matchup of traditional NFC rivals involves two squads limping into prime time on “Sunday Night Football.” The host 49ers are without 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey (Achilles), their 2023 leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee), wide receiver Jauan Jennings (hip), defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (triceps), defensive tackle Kevin Givens (groin), safety Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) and linebacker Dre Greenlaw (knee). San Francisco’s offensive Swiss Army knife Deebo Samuel (wrist/illness) is officially questionable after missing Week 7 with pneumonia, and All-Pro tight end George Kittle (foot) is questionable.
The visiting Cowboys are without three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons (ankle), four-time Pro Bowler DeMarcus Lawrence (foot), 2024 second-round pick defensive end Marshawn Kneeland (knee) and No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee). All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland, who led the NFL with nine interceptions that included an NFL record five interception return touchdowns was also ruled out once again after not practicing all week. It appears his rehab has taken a step back after he practicing fully on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the team’s Week 6 matchup with the Detroit Lions.
Which of these depleted NFC postseason regulars will claw their way to victory on Sunday night? Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and predict a winner.
Where to watch Cowboys vs. 49ers
Date: Sunday, Oct. 27 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
Channel: NBC | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -4, O/U 47 via BetMGM Sportsbook
Check out the latest BetMGM promo to get in the game
When the Cowboys have the ball
The Dallas Cowboys are searching for answers on offense right now. Owner and general manager Jerry Jones allowed his roster to atrophy in the offseason while not making many substantial moves to replace the talent that exited. He has opted to solely rely on pre-existing young talent and rookies from the 2024 draft class like first-round pick Tyler Guyton and third-round pick Cooper Beebe up front while banking on third-year wide receiver Jalen Tolbert’s development and 11-year veteran receiver Brandin Cooks staying healthy in addition to All-Pro CeeDee Lamb. In short, that school thought hasn’t yielded the desired results as the entire offense has taken a step back from its blazing production in 2023.
|
Points per game |
29.9 (1st) |
21.0 (20th) |
|
Total yards per game |
371.6 (5th) |
336.5 (12th) |
|
Drive score percentage (rate of drives that end in touchdown or field goal) |
50.6% (1st) |
42.2% (12th) |
|
Offensive expected points added/play |
0.10 (2nd) |
-0.07 (23rd) |
Now, the Cowboys are potentially turning toward four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook, 29 years old, in attempt to juice the worst run game in the NFL this season. Coach Mike McCarthy said Cook is “ready” to play after being kept on ice on the practice squad the first seven weeks of the season. He missed the entirety of training camp while working out in offseason home of Houston before he signed with Dallas on Aug. 29. Cook could join a backfield that has currently been shared by 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott, undrafted veteran free agent Rico Dowdle (who is inactive with an illness) and second-year fullback Hunter Luepke.
|
Rush attempt/game |
22.2 |
30th |
|
Rush yards/game |
77.2 |
Last |
|
Rush yards/attempt |
3.5 |
Last |
|
Yards before contact/rush |
1.05 |
29th |
|
Yards after contact/rush |
2.44 |
29th |
| Tackles avoided on rushes | 20 | T-30th |
| First downs/rush | 22.6% | 25th |
|
Rush TD |
2 |
Last |
| Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade | 61.8 | 21st |
The lack of punch in their run game hasn’t helped 2023 Second Team All-Pro quarterback Dak Prescott and Lamb in the passing game. Prescott called his start to 2024 “average.”
“I’d say I’ve played average, and average isn’t good enough right now by any means,” Prescott said Thursday. “It’s never been good enough for me. I can’t say that I’ve been happy or excited after any of these games that I’ve played. I can play better. For sure. And I expect to. Preparing to. … There are some things that I can obviously do better and then some of it, some things that I haven’t done that I’ve done in the past. Looking forward just to activate, open up some things in the offense. Stay ahead of the chains, yeah get it going.”
Some of those things could involve scrambling more to juice both the passing game and the running game, a post-bye week change Prescott incorporated a season ago. That helped Dallas go 8-3 after their Week 7 bye a year ago en route to a 12-5 finish.
|
Completion Pct |
69.5% (2nd) |
63.4% (24th) |
| Pass Yards | 4,516 (3rd) | 1,602 (10th) |
|
Pass Yards/Att |
7.7 (6th) |
7.2 (17th) |
|
Pass TD |
36 (1st) |
8 (T-15th) |
|
TD-INT |
36-9 (2nd) |
8-6 (T-23rd) |
|
Passer Rating |
105.9 (2nd) |
85.5 (21st) |
| Expected Points Added/Play | 0.18 (2nd) | -0.09 (22nd) |
* Entering Week 8
San Francisco 49ers All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa could alternate between attacking Guyton and right tackle Terence Steele. The 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year has already racked up 40 quarterback pressures this season, which rank as the second-most in the NFL behind Aidan Hutchinson’s 45. Bosa went one-on-one with Steele on 16 of 17 matchups in the 49ers 42-10 beat down of Dallas in Week 5 last season, per NFL Pro Insights. However, he only recorded four pressures and half a sack that night. Perhaps Steele, now more than a year removed from a torn ACL, could do even better if Bosa takes a break from attempting to bully the rookie Guyton at left tackle.
When the 49ers have the ball
The primary defensive weakness Dallas has that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan will likely look to exploit is their run defense since the Cowboys allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game (143.2) in the entire NFL. San Francisco running back Jordan Mason’s 667 rushing yards are the second-most in the league behind only Derrick Henry’s 873, but Mason leads the NFL in missed tackles forced with 53, per NFL Pro Insights. That’s a significant problem for a Dallas defense that has the highest missed tackle rate (15.8%) in the entire league this season. Some of that figure can be attributed to the inexperience the Cowboys have at inside linebacker outside of 10-year veteran Eric Kendricks. Third-round rookie Marist Liufau, second-year linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and third-year linebacker Damone Clark have all taken a stab at filling the void left by Leighton Vander Esch’s retirement.
Should Dallas be able to slow down Mason on the ground, they might have a chance to handle 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who produced the worst passer rating of his career in a start including playoffs, 36.7, after throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns as well as 212 yards on 17 of 31 passing in a Week 7 loss against the Chiefs. The big driver in his struggles was the lack of Samuel, Aiyuk and Jennings on the field. He threw more passes with Samuel, Aiyuk and Jennings all off the field in Week 7, 17, than he did in his first 37 career games combined, including the playoffs, per CBS Sports Research. However, Dallas is preparing for Samuel to play despite being less than 100%.
“You have to prepare for him. He’s a dynamic player. He’s dangerous because he’s able to be productive from so many different spots on the field. That’s our approach. We’re preparing for him to play. I think he should rest, based on what I’m told,” McCarthy said Thursday with a chuckle. “We’re preparing for him.”
Prediction
The Cowboys might be able to hang around early, but their banged-up defensive front likely won’t be able to hang with Mason and the 49ers run game for four quarters. I’m betting San Francisco wins the time of possession battle as well as the football game, and they do so by multiple scores, running their winning streak against the Cowboys to four in a row.
Pick: 49ers 30, Cowboys 17
Bonus: The SportsLine projection model is leaning on the Over ahead of this matchup between these two NFC rivals. Check out who it’s backing ATS, here.
