Early returns in the College Football Playoff race suggest the SEC will dominate the first year of expansion after the league placed six teams inside the top seven nationally in this week’s updated AP Poll. Texas taking Michigan behind the woodshed along with Tennessee’s 44-point splattering of previously-ranked NC State were barometer non-conference matchups in Week 2 that will be viewed favorably by the selection committee down the road.
After Week 3, my projected automatic bids from expected Power 4 champions along with a Group of Five entry include Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami (ACC), Iowa State (Big 12) and Texas State (Group of Five, from the Sun Belt Conference).
As for seven projected at-large selections, the selection committee will get their pick of various Power Four. Heavyweights graced with competitive schedules whose finishes in the elite-tier of their respective conferences will dictate placement. Not necessarily following this week’s updated polls, I’m expecting the SEC and Big Ten to gobble up all of those spots at this junction.
This would leave the ACC and Big 12 as one-bid leagues, unless there’s a one-loss representative from one of those conferences who could trump others for one of the final spots. While Miami is the clear-cut frontrunner at this point in the ACC, the title race in the Big 12 is wide open with Iowa State possessing a notable ranked win over Iowa before league play begins.
Projected College Football Playoff Rankings
Projected College Football Playoff first-round games
- (12) Texas State at (5) Texas — Winner plays (4) Iowa State
- (9) Penn State at (8) Alabama — Winner plays (1) Georgia
- (11) USC at (6) Ole Miss — Winner plays (3) Miami
- (10) Tennessee at (7) Oregon — Winner plays (2) Ohio State
Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 3 projection features Texas State at Texas, USC at Ole Miss, Tennessee at Oregon and Penn State at Alabama. Texas State-Texas would be a coveted ticket between two programs a short trip away down Interstate 35, while Lane Kiffin meeting one of his former programs provides a plethora of intrigue.
Two high-powered offenses going at it at Autzen Stadium along with a pair of bluebloods battling in Tuscaloosa would result in a SEC vs. Big Ten ratings bonanza in the expanded playoff’s debut. This was the intention after all, right?
Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 teams in the quarters, so top-seeded Georgia would be playing in New Orleans.
Schedules heating up
We’re still two months away from the initial rankings release, so there’s plenty of opportunities for teams not included in this Week 3 projection to make waves. Strength of schedule and head-to-head results will be two determining factors in selection committee deliberations and there’s a wealth of “good on good” matchups upcoming.
Tennessee-Oklahoma, Utah-Oklahoma State and USC-Michigan later this month should help to establish the hierarchy behind perceived title contenders across the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten while freshly-ranked Northern Illinois’ trip to NC State later this month could produce a formidable Group of Five dark horse. NIU’s win over Notre Dame, the program’s first over a top 10 team, was an emotional momentum-booster for coach Thomas Hammock, whose team could navigate a manageable schedule and finish unbeaten if the Huskies can clip the Wolfpack on Sept. 28.
No two-loss team has ever appeared in the playoff, but that will change in the expansion. Several multi-loss teams within this Week 3 projection are expected from the SEC and Big Ten given the schedule challenges many of these quality squads will endure. We’re also envisioning several repeat matchups in the playoff. Georgia-Texas, Ohio State-Oregon and Ole Miss-Georgia are just a few of the games we could see more than once in the coming months.
While it’s difficult to pull hard takeaways from a small sample size, the Ducks are one perceived elite who haven’t passed the eye test thus far. Protection issues along the offensive line is an unexpected weakness and Oregon is fortunate to be unbeaten despite both of its first two games coming down to fourth-quarter execution as a heavy favorite.
Clemson has a chance to reappear in these playoff projections in the coming weeks. The Tigers turned back a season-opening loss to Georgia over the weekend with an annihilation of Appalachian State and they’re open in Week 3 prior to hosting NC State. Dabo Swinney’s group should be favored in every regular-season matchup the rest of the way with Florida State falling apart and Virginia Tech not playing as well as advertised.
MORE: Making the case for and against Notre Dame’s playoff chances
