Lonnie Briley has been training horses since 1991. But the 72-year-old trainer had never started a horse in a graded stakes race until this year. That horse was Coal Battle, a colt who was purchased for the relatively modest sum of $70,000 in this sport of kings. On Saturday the small-time trainer and the bargain-basement colt have a chance to complete one of the most unlikely stories in Kentucky Derby history.
16 Coal Battle (30-1 on morning line, now 25-1)
- Trainer: Lonnie Briley
- Jockey: Juan Vargas
- Last race: Third in the Arkansas Derby by 7 lengths
- Career record: 8 starts: 5 wins, 1 third
- Career earnings: $1,188,875
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 91 (2025 Rebel Stakes)
- Sire: Coal Front
Below, we’ll dig further into Coal Battle as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3. We’ll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered on Saturday, and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.
Kentucky Derby profiles 1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
Kentucky Derby picks Michelle Yu | Gene Menez | Jody Demling | Jeff Hochman
Now that you know who’s in the field, you’ll want to know how to bet the Kentucky Derby on the top horse racing betting apps.
2025 Kentucky Derby start time, odds, preview: Journalism favored, plus horse profiles, bet strategies
Gene Menez
What to know about Coal Battle
If the best storyline won the Kentucky Derby, then Coal Battle would be the overwhelming 1-5 favorite on Saturday. Bought for $70,000 at an auction in Texas two years ago and trained by the veteran Briley, this son of Coal Front already has earned almost $1.2 million in his short career.
Most of that came during a four-race winning streak from November through February. That run was capped by his best career performance—a victory in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, beating the likes of Sandman, Publisher and Tiztastic, top 3-year-olds who also are in the Kentucky Derby field. In the Rebel, Coal Battle made a move around the far turn reminiscent of Kentucky Derby winners of the past, blitzing around rivals as if they were standing still. If he can duplicate that turn of foot around the far turn at Churchill Downs on Saturday, he will give his connections, fans and backers at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET quite a thrill.
Alas, storylines don’t win Kentucky Derbies, and there is a not-so-small chance that Coal Battle is heading in the wrong direction. A month after the Rebel Stakes, he finished third in the Arkansas Derby, losing by seven lengths to Sandman. Coal Battle earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure in the Arkansas Derby, which was a regression from his career-best 91 from the Rebel. Given that Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism owns a 108 and 102 Beyer, Coal Battle just doesn’t seem fast enough to win the Run for the Roses without a jetpack strapped to his back.
Fans of the horse, of which there are many, may say the Arkansas Derby effort was a result of the horse not being fully cranked with the Kentucky Derby on the horizon or that he was too close to the incendiary pace. And either or both may be true.
But another possibility is that this modestly bred $70,000 purchase has taken his connections as far as he could.
Post draw analysis
Coal Battle is projected to sit midpack in the Kentucky Derby, behind the speed horses and in front of the closers, which is the perfect running style to have for this race because of how the pace scenario shapes up on paper. The No. 16 post position should be more than adequate to sit midpack. If he has regained his Rebel Stakes form, look for Coal Battle to make his sweeping move around the far turn.