Chiefs vs. Eagles odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 174-125 roll

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The two teams with the best records in their conferences will meet on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 11 when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Philadelphia Eagles. The potential Super Bowl preview also is a rematch of last season’s championship game. Kansas City (7-2) won Super Bowl 57, rallying for a 38-35 victory, but the Eagles (8-1) have the NFL’s best record and will be out for revenge. Both teams were off last week after notable victories. The Chiefs stifled the Dolphins in a 21-14 victory in Week 9, while the Eagles held off NFC East rival Dallas for a 28-23 victory.  

Monday’s kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The SportsLine consensus lists the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in its latest Chiefs vs. Eagles odds, and the over/under for total points is 45.5. Before you make any Eagles vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 174-125 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 28-17 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Eagles vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chiefs vs. Eagles:

  • Chiefs vs. Eagles spread: Kansas City -2.5
  • Chiefs vs. Eagles over/under: 45.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Eagles money line: Philadelphia +122, Kansas City -145
  • PHI: Eagles are 15-17 ATS as underdogs since the 2018 season
  • KC: Chiefs are 15-11-2 ATS in non-conference games since 2018
  • Chiefs vs. Eagles picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Chiefs vs. Eagles live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 4-0 against the spread in the four meetings with the Eagles since Andy Reid took over as coach in 2013. The former Philadelphia boss is 31-6 straight-up in his career coming off a bye week and is 7-8 ATS in such games with the Chiefs. The offense led by reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been as dynamic so far, but the young defense is picking up any slack. The Chiefs allow 15.9 points (second in the NFL) and 288 yards (fourth) per game.

The Chiefs are tied for third, with 31 sacks, with George Karlaftis (six), Chris Jones (5.5) and Mike Danna (5.5) keeping quarterbacks uncomfortable. The Eagles have the NFL’s best run defense, but rank 28th against the pass (257 yards per game). Mahomes is sixth in the league in passing yards (2,442), and Travis Kelce remains the league’s standard for tight ends. He has 57 catches for 597 yards in 2023 and had 81 yards and a TD in the Super Bowl victory. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Eagles can cover

Philadelphia has the second-best record against the spread in the NFL at 5-2-2. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four primetime matchups, while the Chiefs are on a 1-5 ATS slide in their past six under the bright lights. Quarterback Jalen Hurts had a monster game in the Super Bowl, throwing for 304 yards and rushing for 70, while accounting for four touchdowns. He has 2,347 passing yards and 316 on the ground and has been responsible for 22 touchdowns this season.

Receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 13 catches for 196 yards in the championship game. Brown is second in the NFL with 1,005 receiving yards (15 per catch) and has scored six touchdowns in 2023. Smith has 42 catches and four TDs. Running back D’Andre Swift is sixth in the league with 614 rushing yards. The Eagles’ defense ranks first against the run (66 yards per game) and has the most sacks (100) since the start of last season. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Eagles vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the total, projecting 47 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine. 

So who wins Eagles vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Eagles vs. Chiefs spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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