Bitcoin (BTC) faces “unprecedented” US dollar correlation as new BTC price research gives a $75,000 floor.
In one of his latest analyses on April 18, network economist Timothy Peterson calculated that BTC/USD may rise as high as $138,000 within the next three months.
BTC price probabilities give bulls the upper hand
Bitcoin is navigating highly unusual macroeconomic conditions as a result of the ongoing US trade war, but history still offers clues as to where BTC price action may head next.
For Peterson, the US High Yield Index Effective Yield, currently at over 8%, holds the key.
“This has happened 38 times since 2010 (monthly data),” he summarized.
“3 months later: Bitcoin was up 71% of the time. The median gain was +31%. If it went lower, the worst loss was -16%.”
With BTC/USD performance thus skewed to the upside, Peterson gave hope to those waiting for a rematch of all-time highs from January.
“This likely puts Bitcoin between $75k and $138k within 90 days,” he concluded.
Bitcoin would need to deliver 62% gains within that period to achieve that maximum level.
As Cointelegraph reported, Peterson has been a frequent contributor to BTC price forecasts in 2025, with one of his proprietary tools, Lowest Price Forward, giving 95% odds of a $69,000 floor in March.
Bitcoin DXY correlation will flip negative
Turning his attention to the dramatic drop in the US dollar index (DXY) thanks to US trade tariffs, he predicted that its unusual positive correlation with BTC would ultimately end.
Related: Bitcoin price volatility ‘imminent’ as speculators move 170K BTC — CryptoQuant
“This level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented. The relationship is not causal, but reflective of underlying conditions affecting both,” he explained.
“Historically inverse, the relationship flipped in 2024 as both assets began responding to the same macro stressors: tightening liquidity, high real rates, and global risk aversion. BTC will decouple and rise when real yields drop + liquidity returns.”
DXY continued to stay below the key 100 mark on April 18, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, reflecting some of its lowest levels in the past three years.
Earlier, separate analysis nonetheless saw the potential for Bitcoin to directly benefit from dollar weakness in a manner similar to the early innings of the bull run in 2023.
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