The Big 12 was the first major conference to eliminate divisions and move to a No. 1 vs. No. 2 format. But after expanding to 16 teams for the first time in 2024, the race is shaping up to be the most chaotic yet.
Right now, two teams — BYU and Iowa State — remain undefeated in Big 12 play. Texas Tech is the only other team without a conference loss. No other Big 12 squad completely controls their own destiny, especially since the full round robin schedule is gone. That said, only one team (TCU 2022) has made it through Big 12 play undefeated since the conference brought back the championship game in 2017. Losses are likely on the way.
The Big 12 title game has featured a first-time entrant in six of seven seasons, with the Texas-Oklahoma State battle last year being the only exception. After seven weeks, we’re well on our way to adding more new faces as sports betting markets list BYU (+440), Texas Tech (+1000) and Arizona State (+1500) as some of the favorites to win the conference, per FanDuel sportsbook.
As a recap, here’s how the Big 12 tiebreaker procedures work in 2024:
- The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record.
- The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against all common Big 12 opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against the next-highest placed common opponent.
- The tied teams will be compared based on combined conference record of opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared based on total number of wins in a 12-game season.
- The representative will be chosen based on the team rating score metric provided by SportSource Analytics.
- The representative will be chosen by coin toss.
Last year, the tiebreaker rules created some major controversy. The conference office released a list of clarifications, which incensed Oklahoma and Kansas State fans. Ultimately, the tiebreaker ended up being a clean head-to-head after Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma, but there’s no guarantee we will see such clarity this time.
The Big 12 Championship Game will take place on Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Here’s how we handicap each team’s place in the conference race heading into the middle of the season.
The Undefeateds
BYU (3-0 Big 12): The Cougars might be the most unexpected College Football Playoff contender in the nation, but their path is highly manageable. After beating Kansas State, SMU and Arizona, BYU doesn’t have another ranked opponent on its schedule. Additionally, the program has a tiebreaker over KSU that could prove to be wildly valuable heading into the home stretch. With so many quality wins, BYU has plenty of leeway to stay in this race. Odds to win conference +440
Iowa State (3-0): After surviving the Cy-Hawk battle against Iowa, the Cyclones have hit another level. All three wins against Big 12 foes were by two touchdowns and Iowa State should be favored in every game from here on out. The season could come down to the annual Farmaggedon rivalry game against No. 17 Kansas State. Expect that one to be a Big 12 title play-in game. Odds to win conference +170
The Contenders
Texas Tech (3-0): Who would have thought the Red Raiders would be 3-0 and sitting in first place after miserable showings against Abilene Christian and Washington State? Not me! When running back Tahj Brooks is in the lineup, Texas Tech is a different team. The Red Raiders have a marquee game on Nov. 2 at Iowa State, but the rest of the schedule is a combined 5-10 in conference play. Odds to win conference +1000
Kansas State (2-1): Outside of a bad Saturday in Provo, Kansas State has looked the part of a contender, including massive wins over Arizona and Oklahoma State. A road trip to West Virginia this week is probably the toughest remaining test until the road trip against No. 9 Iowa State. Getting all of Kansas, Arizona State and Cincinnati at home helps matters. Odds to win conference +320
One Break Away
Colorado (2-1): As a certified Buffs skeptic coming into the year, their performance against Kansas State was seriously impressive. Granted, their offensive line issues remain, but the defense has generally done a good job slowing things down and making halftime adjustments. The schedule is filled with 50/50 games, including road trips to Arizona and Texas Tech. Beat the Red Raiders and we can really have a conversation. Odds to win conference +1800
West Virginia (2-1): How do you solve a problem like WVU? Neal Brown’s team has three losses, but they’re against three undefeated teams. The wins are against teams with a combined 0-6 Big 12 record, and an FCS team. Kansas State and Texas Tech provide more tough tests. Brown hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since Oct. 30, 2021. Odds to win conference +1800
Arizona State (2-1): Beating Utah proved that the Sun Devils can punch up, but they’ll have to do it quite a bit in the coming weeks. Games against Kansas State, BYU and Arizona remain on the schedule. ASU probably needs chaos to enter the race. Odds to win conference +1500
Cincinnati (2-1): The Bearcats are somewhat hard to place. All their wins are all over teams ranked 70 or lower in the CBS Sports 134, but the losses are all to teams in the top 30. With Arizona State, Iowa State and Kansas State left, the path is difficult, but not impossible for a team that’s 2-1 in Big 12 play. Odds to win conference +4500
Outside Looking In
Utah (1-2): The Utes were the preseason favorite, but injuries to quarterback Cameron Rising tanked them in losses to ex-Pac-12 foes Arizona and Arizona State. Rising’s season-ending injury at least hands the keys full time to Isaac Wilson, but games against No. 13 BYU and No. 9 Iowa State makes Utah’s path nearly impossible. Odds to win conference +1800
Arizona (1-2): Outside of a 23-10 win over a hobbled Utah team, the Wildcats have been outclassed since joining the Big 12. A 31-7 loss against Kansas State thankfully doesn’t count against their conference record, but losses to Texas Tech and BYU do. The one solace is that UA has one of the easier remaining schedules in the conference, but the ‘Cats can’t afford to lose a single game. Odds to win conference +6500
All betting odds via FanDuel sportsbook. Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game.
Not Great, Bob
- Oklahoma State (0-3): The Cowboys rank among the most disappointing programs in the nation after a 0-3 start to Big 12 play. Oklahoma State has no identity as defenses stifle its running game, ranking No. 13 in total offense and No. 16 in total defense among 16 Big 12 teams.
- UCF (1-2): After coming from behind to beat TCU in Week 3, the Knights are falling apart. UCF is on a three-game losing streak, including home games against Colorado and Cincinnati.
- Baylor (0-3): The Bears are clearly improved from a 3-9 record after playing Colorado and BYU close, but things could quickly unravel. A bad loss to Texas Tech this week off a bye could be the final nail.
- TCU (1-2): It’s not great to be a Big 12 private school these days. Sonny Dykes had no answers after an 11-point home beatdown at the hands of Houston. Even the lone win over Kansas is aging exceptionally poorly.
- Kansas (0-3): Once billed as a conference title contender, the Jayhawks have sadly found their way back to the basement. The Jayhawks have been competitive in every game, but sit at 1-5 with three ranked teams left on the schedule.
- Houston (1-2): The Cougars were picked near the bottom of the Big 12 but have shown some signs of life against TCU and Oklahoma. That’s enough for Year 1. Quarterback Zeon Chriss is a multi-year building block.
