We’re always reminded that, in instances of polling, crunching statistics, and so on, we should be looking not at individual events or surveys but at trends. A recent trend out of Pennsylvania is interesting – but Republican voters should not get too happy over these results.
PA mail-in ballot requests:
2020, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 1,101,962 (+725,000)
🔴GOP: 376,9562024, 50 days before the election:
🔵Dems: 798,946 (+477,869)
🔴GOP: 321,077If this is how the mail-in breakdown ends up, we are in a phenomenal position.
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 17, 2024
The same account makes a compelling observation.
Pennsylvania is the ballgame, folks.
Register today. Close the gap.https://t.co/vXFNzOpEqQ
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 17, 2024
This is good advice. Pennsylvanian Republicans should be stepping up their turnout game.
But it’s an open question about how good this news is for Republicans in Pennsylvania or the Trump/Vance campaign. What these numbers look like is this: The GOP isn’t taking quite as bad a drubbing in mail-in voting as they did in the last presidential election. Yes, Democrats tend to use mail-in voting and early voting more than Republicans do. Yes, Republicans tend to vote on the actual election day in greater numbers.
But this is still a difference of almost half a million votes.
This is a state that the Trump/Vance campaign must win. Without Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes, the Trump/Vance campaign’s pathways to 270 become very tenuous indeed. And, yes, the campaign has been hitting Pennsylvania hard lately.
But this is still a difference of almost half a million votes.
Pennsylvania has historically been an important state in presidential elections.
The last time a Democrat presidential candidate won an election without winning Pennsylvania was in 1948. This was before mail-in voting was an option. Since then, Pennsylvania has been a bellwether; who takes Pennsylvania takes the election. The GOP is closing the gap.
But this is still a difference of almost half a million votes.
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Pennsylvania Republicans have no reason to rest on their laurels. As I’ve said and will keep saying, this is a presidential contest that will be fought to the bitter end, and possibly beyond. It is an election that, one way or another, will have enormous consequences. The Democratic Party is, traditionally, very good at playing the turnout game. Republicans in Pennsylvania need to get just as good. The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania has Trump holding a hair-thin lead of less than one percent – well within the margin of error.
Trump/Vance must win this state.
If you’re in Pennsylvania, get out and vote. Get all your Republican friends out to vote. Get all your Republican relatives out to vote. If any of your friends or relatives are Democrats, well, don’t worry too much about them.
Trump is still holding that narrow lead, and he’s still hitting Pennsylvania hard.
But this is still a difference of almost half a million votes.
Vote, Pennsylvania.
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