Making NFL survivor picks is one way to give yourself a vested interest in the outcome of a game. Unlike in Fantasy football where you’re rooting for individuals and in spread or over/under bets where you’re rooting for a particular result, in NFL knockout pool picks, you simply select one team each week and hope they win. The only caveat is that you can only use a team once, so choosing whether to save a team or burn a team is where having a optimal 2024 NFL survivor pool strategy comes in handy. Understanding the general percentages of opponents who are picking a certain team can give you a significant leg up in NFL survivor picks because it will allow you to avoid games where large percentages of the field are wiped out.
For example, the Bengals (-9.5 against the Patriots) are the only team on the Week 1 NFL schedule favored by more than 6.5 points and are likely to take on plenty of action, so many players might choose to avoid Cincinnati and hope for the worst. Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.
Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions
In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins, even though they’re coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. The Dolphins were one of the darlings of the NFL in 2023, with an exciting offense that put them in contention for home-field advantage in the AFC until late in the season. However, a 56-19 throttling at the hands of the Ravens and a 21-14 loss to the Bills where they were outgained by 198 yards to end the season sent them to Arrowhead Stadium for one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history during NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Miami lost that matchup 26-7 and generally disappointing offensive performances late in the season are a big reason why the model is avoiding the Dolphins here. Jacksonville was middle-of-the-road defensively in 2023 but has a pair of dynamic edge rushers in Josh Allen and Travon Walker (both reached double-digits in sacks). The Jaguars also replaced Calvin Ridley by adding Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., which gives Trevor Lawrence an incredibly capable group of skill players to work with against a Miami pass defense that allowed 27 passing touchdowns in 2023. See which team to pick here.
How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks
Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.
Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.
