Joey Votto announced his retirement from Major League Baseball on Wednesday. He leaves behind a legacy that includes a lot of personality, notably late in his career, and one hell of a resume as a hitter.
When a six-time All-Star who also won an MVP retires, one of the first things we do is wonder about his chances to make the Hall of Fame. Let’s run down his case.
The stats and accolades
As noted, Votto won the National League MVP in 2010 and made the All-Star team six times. He was a career .294/.409/.511 (144 OPS+) hitter and ended up with 2,135 hits, 459 doubles, 356 home runs, 1,144 RBI, 1,171 runs and 64.5 WAR. He led the league in on-base percentage seven times, walks five times, OPS twice, slugging percentage once, doubles once, WAR once and OPS+ once.
The only players to lead the league more often in OBP were Ted Williams (12), Barry Bonds (10), Babe Ruth (10) and Rogers Hornsby (9). Right off the top, this says Votto was one of the greatest in history at getting on base and, really, isn’t that the name of the game here? A pitcher is trying to get a batter out. OBP measures the players best at thwarting said attempt.
Votto ranks 42nd all-time in OBP, though he played through an era that in which it was much tougher to get on base than it was in, say, the 1930s. He also sits 53rd in OPS, 34th in walks and 93rd in times on base despite sitting 184th in plate appearances.
JAWS is just a piece of the puzzle, but Votto shows very well there. Among every other first baseman in history, he sits 12th. He’s above the line for the average current Hall of Fame first baseman. He’s one spot behind Miguel Cabrera (who will soon get in on the first ballot) and sits ahead of Rafael Palmeiro (who would be in if not for the PED connection), Willie McCovey, Todd Helton and Eddie Murray.
In all, Votto sits ahead of 20 Hall of Fame first baseman and only behind 11, once Albert Pujols (he’s second to Lou Gehrig) and Cabrera get in. He’s also ahead of players who could be argued as worthy Hall of Famers like Paul Goldschmidt, Mark McGwire, Keith Hernandez, Freddie Freeman and Will Clark.
Lack of benchmarks?
Votto doesn’t hit any traditional benchmark stats that have, in the past, been automatic tickets to Cooperstown. He didn’t reach 3,000 hits or 500 home runs. He didn’t even get to 500 doubles, 1,500 RBI or 1,500 runs. His average dipped below .300 late in his career, though he was able to stay above .400 OBP and .500 slugging.
This is something that will be latched onto by people who don’t want Votto in the Hall of Fame, but it has never been a disqualification.
Johnny Mize ended up with 2,011 hits, 359 homers, 367 doubles, 1,337 RBI and 1,118 runs. Kirby Puckett had 2,304 hits, 414 doubles, 207 homers, 1,085 RBI and 1,071 runs. Jim Rice fell short of the aforementioned counting-stat benchmarks. So did Orlando Cepeda, Billy Williams, Ralph Kiner, Larry Walker, Vladimir Guerrero, Ross Youngs, Willie Keeler and Chuck Klein. And on and on we could go, hitting every generation along the way.
Votto is fine here.
Lack of postseason/’clutch’ success
A relatively recent phenomenon is judging players based upon the small samples of playoff performance and even assigning character traits to the players who don’t have great playoff numbers. They shrink in the moment or something silly like that. Votto hit .389 with a .500 OBP in the 2012 NLDS, but was bad in his other three series, leaving him with a career playoff slash line of .244/.319/.244. It was only 11 games.
I’m sure there will be someone somewhere decrying Votto as a Hall of Fame candidate due to this, but it’s outrageous to grab six bad games and impugn a player of his caliber.
We aren’t going to get exhaustive here, but there are plenty of Hall of Famers who struggled at times in the postseason. Ted Williams hit .200/.333/.200 in his seven career postseason games.
While we’re here, let’s set something straight. There was some nonsense going around about Votto in the back half of his career about him not being “clutch” or whatever — I believe spurred by his big contract in a small market, because that always leads to hand-wringing from the peanut gallery. In his career with runners in scoring position, he hit .321/.468/.574. In high-leverage situations, he hit .314/.438/.562. He hit much better with runners on base than he did with the bases empty. Some numbers dip (if you pared RISP numbers to only include two-out situations, his average drops to .265, though his OBP was still a ripe .458), but in general, there’s no evidence that Votto somehow “shrunk” in big moments. It’s a narrative people who decided they don’t like Votto have created to fit their biases.
The eye/feel/”fame” test
Many disregard this and that’s their prerogative. Many others like to say that you should immediately know if a player is a Hall of Famer or not just by hearing his name.
During Votto’s prime, he sure felt like a gigantic deal to me. I always considered him a Hall of Fame-caliber player. When he was truly locked in, watching his plate appearances was so aesthetically pleasing. You so rarely see players work a pitcher like he did. He could homer on the first pitch or foul off every offering the pitcher had until he finally gave in and walked Votto. His eye was so good, he rarely made a mistake in swinging outside the zone or taking a fastball down the middle.
This is all in the eye of the beholder, but I felt like I was watching greatness with Votto.
The verdict
It might not happen on the first ballot, but I do believe Votto will get in. He had to fight through lots of nonsense from naysayers, but I think he emerged even more respected than he was before. The lack of benchmarks and postseason success means it might take a few years, but in the end, I think his resume is more than good enough to get him in.
I’m a voter for the first time this year and I can very firmly say I’m going to be a Votto voter when the time comes.
