Drafting quarterbacks should be an enjoyable experience. There are more than 15 players who could qualify as starter-worthy, and even if you wanted to lock up a player who had 22-plus-point potential, there are roughly a dozen of those.
The only reason to take a quarterback early is if you insist on getting someone with 28-plus-weekly-point potential. Or if you’re in a SuperFlex/two-QB league. In either case, supply is low and demand is high.
But my overarching advice for drafting quarterbacks this year is simple: Wait until it feels like a bargain. A steal. A ripoff. Then draft. Don’t do it otherwise.
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ONE-QB LEAGUES
Quarterback remains the deepest and most adaptable position to navigate in Fantasy drafts. Word has gotten around to the home leagues that taking a passer in Round 1 is a bad idea — something we’ve preached for like a decade but it took a down season for QB stats to drive the point into people’s heads.
There appears to be a consensus top four in Tier 1. That helps bring the draft cost down for those quarterbacks because at least a third of the league will have one of them. And the drop-off from Tier 1 to Tier 2 isn’t that bad, so no one should feel pressure to reach for a quarterback unless there’s one you have a good feeling about. Expect the first quarterback to get taken in Round 2 in your league, with the others in Tier 1 to follow within the next 12 picks, and Tier 2 to vanish by 65th overall. This is ahead of when I would take these quarterbacks; I would not panic if you don’t get a QB in Tier 1 or 2.
I believe Fantasy managers will have that sweet spot of draft value and production from the Tier 3 quarterbacks, all of whom will get taken in Round 7 or later. These three are Dak Prescott (24 points per game in 2023 and 2021 AND 23.9 in his final nine games of 2022), Jordan Love (25 points per game in his final nine) and Kyler Murray (at least 20 points per game in each of his past four seasons, 23-plus in 2021 and 2020 when he was healthy).
Tiers 4 and 5 in one-QB leagues have more risks but the discount for some of these guys is unbeatable and simply a byproduct of too much supply for the demand of quarterbacks in a 10- or 12-team league. Brock Purdy stands out to me as a great value pick just like the guys in Tier 3, but he can be had even later. There are also two rookie quarterbacks in Tier 4 — Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. They’ve got appeal as blue-chip bench stashes. It’s not a perfect plan to add them as Week 1 starters, but you should plan on taking them before you take a second quarterback who might actually be your Week 1 starter (Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford).
Pre-draft homework:
* Review the QBs in Tiers 3 through 5. The more of those names you’d be willing to start in Week 1, the more willing you should be to wait for a quarterback in your draft. The fewer of those names you’d be willing to start in Week 1, the more focused you should be on taking a top-10 quarterback.
* If you love Anthony Richardson’s upside, be primed to take him in Round 5, not Round 6. Otherwise, let someone else draft him at an inflated cost.
* Remember, the later you take a QB, the more opportunities you give yourself to lock up star players at other positions. If that’s a goal for you after studying other positions, waiting on quarterback is smart. That goes double if you plan to target a difference-making tight end with a top-60 pick.
SUPERFLEX/TWO-QB LEAGUES
Most managers in leagues that can start two quarterbacks don’t like to wait long before getting at least one quarterback. Some try to capitalize on the roster requirements and get two with their first two or three picks to differentiate their teams. That’s a league-winning concept when it works out.
But at what point in Round 1 should you pass on a quarterback for another position? There are two rules of thumb: One, pay attention to supply and demand and who might be available at quarterback with your next pick if you pass on one. If you don’t like the names, be ready to take a quarterback. Two, anytime there’s a non-quarterback who has a better statistical ceiling than the best-remaining quarterback, take the non-quarterback.
Example: You’re picking 10th. The best available quarterback is Anthony Richardson, the best available running back is Breece Hall and the best available wideout is Justin Jefferson. If you think Richardson has the upside to bury Hall and Jefferson, take Richardson. That’s easy. If you don’t think he has it, take your pick between Hall and Jefferson and hope one of the remaining Tier 3 quarterbacks makes it back to you. Or, if you’re scared that any of the Tier 3 quarterbacks won’t make it back, you should just take Richardson (or whoever you like the most).
Expect a run on quarterbacks in Round 1, but not as much in Round 2. Maybe a few managers will take two quarterbacks with their first two picks but that’s it. You should expect a bunch of Tier 5 quarterbacks to get looked at in Round 3 and maybe even dribble into Round 4. Those would be close to value choices at that time.
That said, I think this is a safe year to wait a little on drafting that second quarterback, especially if part of Tier 4 is gone by the time you’re up in Round 2. Tiers 4 and 5 are deep with quarterbacks who have produced points in the past along with three who could be quite productive this season (Daniels, Williams, Will Levis). Why not take advantage of the depth?
Does this mean it’s worth waiting on taking two quarterbacks (could we even call it Zero-QB?!)? The risk might be worth the reward if you think you can find the next Brock Purdy or C.J. Stroud, the guys who can outperform ADP. You can make the case for literally every QB in Tier 5 and Two-QB Tier-ritory, but they all have some pretty serious downside too. This one’s for the risk-takers because you will fill up on amazing players in Rounds 1 through 3 before scavenging for quarterbacks in Rounds 4 through 6, and if you hit, you’ll punch a ticket to the playoffs. If you miss, you’ll go home crying to mommy.
There’s one last thing: The order in which quarterbacks come off the board changes a little in a two-QB league compared to a one-QB. You might not be as inclined to draft an injury-prone quarterback, an old quarterback, an unproven quarterback, or a quarterback who could lose his job compared to a veteran who is assumed to be locked into 17 games of work. In other words, be cautious with your drafting — losing a starting passer in two-QB will destroy your chances.
Pre-draft homework:
* I guess there’s one more thing: Check your scoring system before Draft Day. If quarterback scoring is nerfed (three points per passing touchdown, but it’s full PPR with rushing/receiving bonuses) then the position shouldn’t be prioritized. Why race for quarterbacks if they’re not going to score as much as other positions?
* Review the QBs in Tiers 5 and 6. The more of those names you’d be willing to start in Week 1, the more comfortable you should be waiting to lock up both starting quarterbacks. The fewer of those names you’d be willing to start in Week 1, the more comfortable you should be reaching for quarterbacks. It is not a death sentence to reach for quarterbacks in a two-QB league, but it’ll almost certainly cost you a really good player at another position. This exercise should help you figure out how risky you want to be.
Quarterback tiers
Which sleepers, breakouts, and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.
