The most talented team in the sport and the No. 1 choice in most advanced metrics. The only team in this bracket with 31 wins. This is an easy pick in terms of which team is the best … but that guarantees nothing when it comes to what will happen over the next 1-3 weeks. The Blue Devils are a No. 1 seed for the first time since 2019 when they featured Zion Williamson. This year’s team has college basketball’s biggest star since Zion, Cooper Flagg, who isn’t expected to be held back in the tournament by the ankle sprain he suffered in the ACC quarterfinals. Flagg (18.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.1 apg) is arguably the National Player of the Year, but he’s flanked by a squad with gobs of potential. Kon Knueppel (14.4 ppg) is a terrific Robin to Flagg’s Batman, while junior guard Tyrese Proctor has been somewhat quietly ultra-dependable all season long. Duke ranks top-five in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom.com – the only team who qualifies for that distinction. Jon Scheyer had two really good teams in his first two seasons, but this one, in Year 3, is capital-G Great. If they play to their ceiling, the Blue Devils will win it all. This tournament doesn’t care much about those things, though, so nothing is guaranteed.
2
The Tigers might be faded by some as a national title contender after losing three of their last four heading into the tournament, but I still think Auburn’s best is as good as anyone in college hoops. The 28-5 Tigers have one of the two best college basketball players in Johni Broome, but for all he does, it’s the fact that guard Denver Jones and big man Dylan Cardwell are defensive stalwarts that make Auburn’s ceiling so high. Bruce Pearl’s team is deep, athletic, rangy, and it’s probably about to be one of the more ticked off programs entering the tournament. If that’s not enough, this is also the top-ranked offense at KenPom. Keep in mind, Auburn was upset in the first round last year against No. 13 Yale. The Tigers don’t need to look far to find the proper motivation tactics to push toward the second Final Four in school history, the other coming 2019 under Pearl. No team has lost three of its last four going into the NCAA Tournament and gone on to win the whole thing.
3
Houston does have a No. 1 ranking from one spot; Torvik has kept the Cougars at the top of the sport much of the past two months. The only top seed from last year’s tournament that’s also a No. 1 this year. And it’s the third straight Big Dance Houston’s on the top line. The Cougars are as reliable as pretty much anything going in college basketball. Kelvin Sampson’s team held opponents to 50 points or fewer nine times this season, tops in the nation. This group is also the deadliest 3-point-shooting team BY FAR; Sampson’s ever had. Three guards, LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp all shot above 40%. Houston ranks fourth nationally in 3-point shooting at 39.8%. So there’s that in addition to a vintage Coogs defense, which is No. 2 in KenPom and has one of the premier defenders in Joseph Tugler. We await to see how held back center J’Wan Roberts will be with his ankle injury, but it speaks to Houston’s culture that, even without him, this team has a claim to top-five status. The Cougars were held back from a Final Four run last season when Jamal Shead got injured in the Sweet 16. If this team is fully healthy, it can easily atone for that over the next two weeks.
4
Take every game into account over the past five weeks and I think you can make the case that no team has played better than Florida. Todd Golden’s Gators are an absolute force. The trio of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard is the best backcourt triumvirate in college basketball. That’s not what makes Florida so good, though. The reason the Gators can win a national title is how they cover so much of the floor and adapt to every opponent, every style, no matter what. The 6-11 Alex Condon might be the nation’s most underrated player. Thomas Haugh is a 6-9 sophomore with an ORtg of 132.9 and could be the best sixth man in college hoops. And Florida got back 7-1 Micah Handlogten a few weeks back after a broken leg ended his season prior to last year’s NCAA Tournament. This is Florida’s best team in more than a decade and a bona fide title threat. Golden has never won an NCAA Tournament game. How many does he pick up in 2025: three, four or more?
5
The story coming out of Queens is maybe the best in college basketball. Rick Pitino needed all of two seasons to bring about one of the best years in the history of St. John’s. This is St. John’s first NCAA Tournament since 2019. The program hasn’t won a game in this event in 25 years, but that will be ending in just a few days. At 30-4, SJU is a national title threat thanks to claiming the nation’s top-rated defense. Its four losses came by a combined seven points, making the Johnnies the sixth power-conference team since 1996 to enter the NCAA tourney without a loss by more than three points. Three of those teams — 2014-15 Kentucky, 2004-05 Illinois, 1998-99 Duke — made the national championship game. This team is led by Big East POY RJ Luis (18.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), but if you’ve seen SJU play a bit, you know big man Zuby Ejifior is the guy who makes the Red Storm so powerful. And Kadary Richmond is one of the better all-around defenders in the country. A remarkable team that’s extremely hard to beat. And it’s the sixth school Pitino has brought to the Dance, which is an NCAA record.
6
Rick Barnes’ Vols are really, really good once more, logging a high-end seed for the fifth straight tournament. With a defense that’s as rugged and resistant as essentially any in the sport (and there are some really good ones), the Vols have national title potential. Senior point guard Zakai Ziegler has been a mainstay in Knoxville; he’s on the short list of the most stronghearted guards you’ll find. And he’s a great defender. I love watching him play and will miss him in college hoops when he’s gone. Another premier Vol is Jahmai Mashack, a senior wing who could be the best all-around defensive menace college basketball has to offer. Last year’s Vols made the Elite Eight and fell to Purdue. This group is slightly better on offense and defense. Can Rick Barnes make the second Final Four of his career? The answer is yes. Tennessee is unquestionably good enough to win at least four games in this tournament.
7
The nation’s top-scoring team for the second straight season. Alabama (91.1 ppg) flies up and down the floor, but it’s also blown some games it should have won and been rocked by a couple of good teams as well. I’d put the Tide on my list of teams that can win a national title — provided the defense is steady. Mark Sears has, as expected, been among the best guards in college basketball. Averaging 18.7 points and 4.9 assists, he’s at the center of Nate Oats’ program. But if Bama is going to live up to my ranking here, Grant Nelson’s health is key. As of publishing time, we don’t know how severe or not Nelson’s knee injury was in the loss to Florida in the SEC semis. He’s the Tide’s second-best player, and yet, this is a team with six guys averaging double figures, so the good news is Bama won’t be searching for bodies to pile up the points.
8
From unranked in the preseason to one of the best teams in college basketball. Tom Izzo told me recently he’s got a team that’s the most well-connected group he’s had in five years. That’s reflected in how well this team shares the ball, how good it is in finding each other and knowing how to attack in transition and how hard it bounds to the tin on both ends. The one issue is 3-point shooting — MSU’s one of the worst teams from deep in this field. If it can overcome that, it’s in the mix to win four-plus games in this field. Jase Richardson is the freshman who has emerged as the go-to guy, but he’s far from the only player who can do damage. Balance is the formula here.
9
Don’t be startled in seeing Grant McCasland’s Red Raiders ranked this high. TTU has clocked in as a top-10 team in the metrics for about six weeks at this point. Tech has a top-10 adjusted offensive efficiency and averages 81 points per outing. The star is JT Toppin, who was in this tournament a year ago at New Mexico. With the Red Raiders, he’s been an All American-level player: 18.1 points, 9.2 rebounds per night. Though Toppin’s the topper, Darrion Williams, Chance McMillian, Christian Anderson and Elijah Hawkins (the point guard at the front of it all) combine to create the most underrated starting five in college basketball. The lads from Lubbock are plenty capable of making it back to their home state and playing in San Antonio for the Final Four.
10
The Terps are good enough to get to San Antonio. This team had four losses total in the past two months … and all of them came on game-winning shots in the final 10 seconds. Maryland’s “Crab Five” centers around dazzling freshman Derik Queen (16.3 ppg, 9.0 rpg). He’s a crafty, must-see player who easily ranks among the five best frosh in college hoops. Terps vet Julian Reese helps Queen hold down the frontcourt with guards Ja’Kobi Gillespie (14.7 ppg), Rodney Rice (13.9) and Selton Miguel (12.0 ppg) rounding out one of the most reliable quintets you’ll see in this tournament. Kevin Willard’s group is among the strongest on defense you’ll find; I think the Terps are underrated in this regard. This is Maryland’s best seed in a decade, and I can’t wait to watch them play.
11
The Cyclones were one of the three best teams through the first half of the season, starting 15-1 (that only loss to Auburn in Maui), but have gone 9-8 since. Some of it is injury-related, but the offense has dropped off from what it was in the first three weeks of the season. TJ Otzelberger’s team is still top-20 good with the ball and top-10 level defending it. If Keshon Gilbert is in good shape health-wise, this team is capable of making the Final Four. Gilbert and Curtis Jones are really good wings who put up 30-plus points collectively; 6-8 wing Milan Momcilovic is the team’s best deep threat (40.6% from 3).
12
The Wildcats have had a parabolic-type season: started 4-5, then went 13-1, now 5-6 in their last 11. They rank anywhere from ninth to 14th in mainstream predictive metrics. Sometimes I see this group and think it’s Final Four-good. Other times Arizona looks eminently beatable against most teams in this field. Tommy Lloyd has two Sweet 16 appearances and a first-round knockout in his three previous showings with Arizona. Anything is on the table here. At 16.6 points per game, Caleb Love is in his swan song as a college player. He’s been pretty good this season, flanked by two guys who will ultimately determine how far Arizona goes: sophomore guard KJ Lewis (10.9 ppg) and junior guard Jaden Bradley (11.8 ppg).
13
The Naismith Coach of the Year finalists list included 10 names, all worthy candidates. The best one not to make the cut: Badgers coach Greg Gard. Bucky had a lot of good players leave in the portal last season, and yet this team is noticeably better than the group that earned a No. 5 seed in 2024. The best is a two-time transfer, John Tonje, who has played near or at an All-American level for the past four months. Wisconsin is good enough to make the Final Four with the right draw, the biggest reason being that Gard’s never had an offense this good in his 10 years on the job.
14
For the 20th time in the past 25 years, Mark Few’s Bulldogs (25-8) are the WCC Tournament champions. They’re shooting for a 10th consecutive Sweet 16 run, which, if it happens, would only trail UCLA’s run of 14 from 1967-80 (never in a 64-team field) and UNC’s more impressive streak from 1981-93. The Zags have one of the better college point guards of the past 10 years in Ryan Nembhard, who leads the nation in assists (9.8 per game). Graham Ike down low is a threat to get 20 every night. It’s been an up-and-down season for GU, but this team ranks top-10 in predictive metrics and will strike fear in every opponent it meets in the bracket.
15
The WIldcats had eight top-15 wins this season, and I’d have Mark Pope’s group even higher if they were healthy. But with Lamont Butler’s shoulder a lingering concern and Jaxson Robinson now out for the season (wrist), in addition to not having Kerr Kriisa since December, there’s a ceiling on this group. That said, Pope’s done a wonderful job in his first year at his alma mater. Kentucky scores 85.3 points per game, and that’s led by one of the most surprisingly great transfers this season: Otega Oweh. The former Oklahoma Sooner leads UK at 16.2 per night, followed by Butler and Koby Brea averaging 11.5. Kentucky’s spotty defense cost this team a few times in big spots this season, but it’s a lot better than where it was in mid-January. With the style of play and the camaraderie on the court, UK is a threat to make the second weekend — but it also could be vulnerable to a first-round upset. A lot’s on the table with this group, which makes them fun to watch.
16
Brad Brownell’s been at Clemson for 15 seasons. This is his fifth time taking the Tigers dancing but the first in back-to-back years. The 2023-24 group made the Elite Eight — and this team rates slightly better. After going 18-2 in the ACC, Clemson set a school record with 27 wins, the best single-season victory total in the history of the program. One issue: guard Dillon Hunter has a broken left hand, which hurts their backcourt depth. Hunter was the team’s sixth man. Another Hunter, Chase, averages 16.4 points and is shooting 41.2% from 3. He gets help by way of some stellar defense from backcourt mate Jaeden Zackery, who’s among the best on-ball defenders in the league. I’m also a bit of a sucker for senior F Ian Schieffelin’s game. A signature Really Good College Basketball Player.
17
The Cougars will remain a chic Sweet 16/Elite Eight pick, even after getting decked in the Big 12 semis by Houston. (Houston does this to most teams.) Few teams share the sugar like this one; nine players average between 6.0 and 16.0 points. They take really smart shots and run some creative sets. Kevin Young spent more than a decade on an NBA sideline as an assistant coach, and he’s adapted quite well quite quickly to the college game, overseeing BYU’s 24-9 season. If the Cougars win their next game, they’ll have their most wins in nine seasons — and their first second round NCAA trip in 14.
18
What a debut for Pat Kelsey. He takes over a Louisville program that was an utter disaster and pulls off one of the greatest year-over-year flips ever. From eight wins to 27. The Cardinals went 20-3 vs. ACC opponents with two of those losses coming against Duke. Kelsey’s team gets its defensive toughness from Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn, who’s been an All American-level player the past four months. On offense, Terrence Edwards Jr. is a high-usage player who can get hot in a flash. I knocked Louisville down ever so slightly here because Reyne Smith’s ankle injury remains a wait-and-see on his availability and productivity. He’s the Cards’ best 3-point shooter (38.3% on 277 attempts).
19
A team like Mizzou really displays the unprecedented depth of the SEC. This is a 22-11 team that’s easily in the top 20 of most metrics. The Tigers didn’t have power forward Mark Mitchell available in the SEC Tournament; his availability in the NCAA Tournament is paramount to making a Sweet 16 (or better) push. Mitchell (14.1 ppg) is Mizzou’s leading scorer. Dennis Gates’ offense is top-five good in the country thanks to shooting 37% from 3-point range, 56.7% from 2 and getting to the foul line more often than every other team in this tournament. And oh, by the way, this team is a record-setter. Missouri went winless last season vs. league competition. It’s only the third high-major team to bounce back from going O-fer in its league to make the NCAAs, and it’s the best seed in that regard as well.
20
The Gaels are dancing for the 11th time under Randy Bennett and making their fourth straight appearance overall. SMC played its way to a 28-5 as regular-season champs of the WCC by playing its signature rugged defense, in addition to being a beast on the boards. The Gaels snare 40.5% of their misses, good for the second-best rate in the country. Point guard Augustus Marciulionis is a fun floor general, buoyed down low by the 1-2 big-man rotation of Mitchell Saxen and Harry Wessels.
21
No more Zach Edey, but Purdue’s still a good team with a great head coach and an All-American. That would be Braden Smith, who was one of the three best guards in the country this season. Averaging 16.1 points, 8.7 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 2.2 steals, Smith is sometimes dismissed for reasons similar to his former teammate. Edey couldn’t be great because he was that tall. Smith can’t be great because he’s too short. The haters are exhausting. Just say you don’t know ball! Trey Kaufman-Renn is Purdue’s leading scorer (20.2 ppg) on a team that is top-10 in offensive efficiency, top-10 in 3-point percentage and won 22 games with one of the 10 hardest schedules in college hoops.
22
No team shoots the ball more poorly yet is better overall than Buzz Wiliams’ Texas A&M Aggies. This squad ranks 274th in free-throw percentage, 293rd from 2-point range and 317th from beyond the arc. It’s not good at the No. 1 objective of the game: putting the ball in the basket. An easy team to pick for an early upset. So how’d it go 22-10 and beat the likes of Purdue, Creighton, Texas Tech and Auburn? Nobody is better at grabbing offensive rebounds and producing second-, third- and fourth-chance opportunities like these guys. A&M snags 42% of its misses. If Wade Taylor IV (15.7 ppg) and Zhuric Phelps (14.1 ppg) are on, this is a dangerous team.
23
The Jayhawks are 20-game winners for a 26th straight season (a D-I record), but the preseason No. 1 team has been all over the map for four months. This Jayhawks team will nevertheless try to buck the trend. Kansas has never made the Sweet 16 in the same season as earning the preseason No. 1 ranking. It’s the last go-round for Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris Jr. and KJ Adams. Bill Self’s defense still ranks in the top 15 and KU has a 41.3% 3-point shooter in South Dakota State transfer Zeke Mayo. Can the NCAA Tournament give this team a new lease on its season, or is it fated to follow its pattern of skittish play from most of the past few months?
24
The 21-12 Illini are the choose-your-own-adventure team of the tournament. Capable of getting rolled in the first round, or good enough to get hot and win three games and threaten a Final Four. But it’s hard to remove just how badly they got romped by Maryland in the Big Ten quarters (88-65). If you’ve got a top-10 NBA pick running your offense, you’ve got a chance for some March magic. Illini freshman Kasparas Jakucionis is a 6-6 guard out of Lithuania who has shown flashes of great while too often settling for good. The same can be said of center Tomislav Ivisic and forward Tre White. A streaky 3-point shooting team, the Illini will have to win shooting big and running plenty.
25
What a debut in Ann Arbor for Dusty May. The Wolverines regathered some of their mojo in the Big Ten Tournament and enter the NCAA field with one of the best inside-the-arc attacks in college basketball. That’s because Michigan is the only team to start/play two 7-footers more than 27 minutes per game. Vlad Goldin came with May via FAU and is the team’s leading scorer, while Yale transfer Danny Wolf is one of the most skilled players in college basketball. May’s team is deep, but it has big troubles with turnovers. Solve that, and a Final Four is on the table. Also: Michigan won 12 games this season by four points or fewer; it’s the only power-conference team in college basketball history to do that.
26
The Rebels are back in the field for the first time since 2019. Chris Beard’s team is 22-11 with wins over Louisville, BYU, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee. This team is among the best nationally at not turning itself over, giving the Rebs 3-5 more fulfilled possessions per game than their counterparts most nights. Sean Pedulla hit a game-winner vs. Arkansas in the SEC second round that reminded us of why he’s been one of the best transfers in the league. Pedulla leads the team in scoring, but the attack across the board is fairly balanced. No doubt capable of reaching the Sweet 16.
27
As has been the case in recent seasons, Creighton is a quality team that lacks depth but puts out one of the sturdiest starting fives you’ll find. It starts with Ryan Kalkbrenner, one of the best defenders in college hoops. Kalkbrenner leads Creighton in scoring (19.4), rebounding (8.8) and blocks (2.7) per game. You have to account for him every second on the floor because of his size and touch. And, he rarely fouls. Senior point guard Steven Ashworth (16.3 ppg) is the No. 2 option on a 24-win team that fouled less frequently than any other team in college basketball. The Jays run a sophisticated offense. The common refrain in the NCAA tourney is “it’s all about matchups,” and few teams meet that description better than this one.
28
The Bruins are in the field for the fourth time in the past five years. At 22-10, they’re a bit all over the place, but they do excel at turning teams over. Oregon State transfer Tyler Bilodeau is the key piece for Mick Cronin’s guys. This team doesn’t have a clear forte or Achilles’ heel. From a national perspective, UCLA is a bit bland, though I will say Bilodeau (6-foot-9) and 6-8 Eric Dailey’s joint 3-point shooting capability does create some mismatch opportunities. You can make the case for them at 21 or 22 … or as low as 32/33. I’m splitting the difference.
29
Few players in this tournament can take over a game like MU senior guard Kam Jones. The crafty lefty averages 19.3 points, 5.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds. His 3-point shooting isn’t great (31.2%), but so much else he brings to the court gives Marquette (23-10) a puncher’s chance against a lot of teams. David Joplin and Chase Ross flank Jones in Marquette’s offensive attack; senior Stevie Mitchell is one of the 10 best defenders in the nation, too. This is Shaka Smart’s fourth season at Marquette and his fourth tourney appearance. The Golden Eagles are now a mainstay in this event with Smart running the show.
30
This is Dana Altman’s 18th trip to the NCAA Tournament, 10th with the Ducks, who had won eight straight before getting clipped in the Big Ten quarters by Michigan State. Intriguing team. Started 16-3, lost five straight but has been steady for the most part since. It’s not outstanding in any statistical category, but having one of the oldest Power Five rosters has clearly been a major plus. Two names to know for different reasons: Senior PF Nate Bittle (13.9) looks 30 and plays like a vet. Fun game. Even more fun: 6-foot sophomore Jackson Shelstad, who has accumulated a handful of deep-range game-winners and game-tying shots in his time with the Ducks. Would love to see the ball in his hands in a tie game and 20 seconds to go later this week.
31
At the start of the season, there was talk and hope and could-they-really-do-this speculation about a UConn three-peat. Now the Huskies are trying to make a Sweet 16 push and end this up-and-down season on a solid note. At 23-10, Dan Hurley’s team has shown it still has the capability to beat good teams: Gonzaga, Marquette (twice) and a road win over Creighton prove that. But it’s also lost to Seton Hall (still baffling), Colorado and Dayton. Their hopes don’t merely rest on the play of junior forward Alex Karaban (14.4 ppg). Sophomore Solo Ball (14.6 ppg) and freshman Liam McNeeley (14.5 ppg) have to round out the attack on offense. Even with their inconsistencies, the Huskies and Hurley remain compelling TV.
32
Scott Drew’s team has a roster that is more talented than its 19-14 record suggests. Its resume was actually fairly dicey but clearly had enough to get past the finish line. This feels like the type of team that’s a great candidate to peel off a Sweet 16. Norchad Omier (15.9 ppg, 10.9 rpg) is a hoss down low, VJ Edgecombe (15.0 ppg) could be one of the five most talented freshmen in the sport with fellow first-year guard Robert Wright III (11.3 ppg) emerging as a reliable presence in the back half of the season. The Bears have battled the injury bug all season long. They have a coach who’s won a national championship. Will the offense pop this week the way it did back in November?
33
Ryan Odom has VCU into the field after a 28-win season that included the A-10 title. It’s the most wins for this program since 2011-12 under Shaka Smart. Odom has a pair of senior guards good for 15 per night who play so well off each other: Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile. They lead the attack with two more guards — Zeb Jackson and Phillip Russell — giving the Rams a four-guard approach that’s a quirky change of pace from a lot of other teams in the bracket. This program is a March regular at this point: VCU is in the field for the 14th time since 2004.
34
If you think this is just another plodding Bulldogs team that’s a bit of a bore to watch, you’ve got it all wrong. Chris Jans’ 21-12 team averages 79.8 points and has a 5-11 dynamo named Josh Hubbard who launches 9.2 3-pointers per game. Playing in the stacked SEC has led to consistency issues. MSU last won at least three games in a row on Jan. 7. That said, I think getting out of SEC play could do this team wonders.
35
Richard Pitino’s got the Lobos program in back-to-back Big Dances for the first time since 2014. Last year’s team earned an 11-seed and was one-and-done. This group is better, despite losing key pieces, thanks to one of the best guards in America. Donovan Dent has left his mark over the previous 30-plus games, emerging as one of the few guys in the sport who’s good to average better than 20 points and six dimes. Pitino’s team is a group of track athletes, logging approximately 73 possessions per game and constantly looking for the quick (but good) shot. Dent’s down-low counterpart used to play for his father: former Iona Gael Nelly Junior Joseph is an elite defensive rebounder.
36
Penny Hardaway’s Tigers have never entered the tournament with a better record — or seed. The interesting part: Despite winning more than 80% of its games, Memphis hasn’t been a metrics darling. It’s got a backcourt I love: PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter have serious shot-taking/making capabilities, giving Memphis its best scoring guard tandem in years. The Tigers have hovered most of the season in the top 10 in 3-point accuracy, and their list of victims reflects how high Memphis’ ceiling is: Michigan State, Ole Miss, UConn, Clemson and Missouri have all been felled by this team. A real headache to play on short prep, too.
37
The Tritons! This is the program’s fifth year in Division I and its first season of eligibility — and it’s in the bracket immediately. Eric Olen is the coach of a 30-win team that’s ranked top-40 at KenPom for a month. The bosses of the Big West take nearly half of their shots from 3-point range and have good ball security. Not a lot of teams have a 6-foot-6 guy who’s deployed at point guard, but that’s exactly what senior Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones does in part-time duty with defensive specialist Hayden Grey, who leads the nation in steals. A very real threat to win at least one game, if not two.
38
The drought is finally over in Athens. Georgia is back in the big bracket for the first time since 2015. Mike White, in Year 3, has a 20-12 team with a potential top-10 pick on the roster. Asa Newell averages 15.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and can fluctuate between finesse and bruising with some bodies in the paint. I really like Silas Demary Jr.’s game. The 6-5 wing has two-way ability, can score from all three levels and seems to be the barometer for UGA’s outcomes on a given night. The major issue is turnovers. If they can keep them under 10 or 11, they’re a threat to beat most teams outside the top 10 … and even then, Georgia owns wins over Florida and Kentucky.
39
What a coaching job by Niko Medved, who’s brought the Rams dancing for the third time in the past four seasons. CSU is looking for its first NCAA win since 2013, and with Nique Clifford emerging as one of the 15 best players in college basketball over the past two months, it’s going to have a chance. The Rams are destined to be a trendy upset pick in the first round, and understandably so. Clifford is averaging 19.0 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists. He’s probably a first-round NBA pick. Few teams playing better, and few guys looking hotter, over the past month than Clifford and the Rams.
40
Porter Moser gets the Sooners into the NCAAs for the first time in this his fourth season in Norman. Look up and down this list and you’ll see a lot of teams with must-see players. If forced to whittle such a list to 10 guys, OU freshman freshman guard Jeremiah Fears is on that list. He averages 17.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists and has gone to another level over the past two weeks. Arizona, Louisville, Michigan, Missouri — they’ve all lost to this group. A vexing team at times, but I like its chances to wind up in a close one later this week.
41
D-II Drake is one of the stories of the season in college hoops. Ben McCollum spent a decade-plus dominating at Northwest Missouri State, then immediately found huge success with the Bulldogs. The team is led by Bennett Stirtz, who’s been one of the 20-or-so best players in the country. Stirtz averages 19.1 points, 5.7 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 steals. Drake beat Vanderbilt and Kansas State this season. It plays at a methodical pace and will be a super-trendy Cinderella pick. The school is in the NCAAs for a fourth time in five years with 136 victories in that span, making this one of the winningest programs in college basketball of the past half-decade.
42
The Aggies are in the NCAA Tournament for the third time in as many years with as many coaches. From Ryan Odom to Danny Sprinkle to, now, Jerrod Calhoun. This team started 16-1 and finished 26-7. It ranks top-20 at KenPom in offensive efficiency with senior shooting guard Ian Martinez acting as the tip of the spear. These Aggies win with creative sets and know how to find good shots from all over the floor. If you want a true, true Elite Eight dark horse, this is the team.
43
John Calipari’s first season in Hog red includes a bumpy road to the NCAAs, but he’s here, even in spite of losing his two leading scorers (power forward Adou Thiero and combo guard Boogie Fland). The Razorbacks will go as far as their backcourt of Johnnel Davis (previously of FAU) and DJ Wagner (who followed Calipari from Kentucky) will take them. Lack of depth has held this team back all season. Will it mean a quick exit? Calipari is 2-7 in his last nine postseason games.
44
The Musketeers are in! Sean Miller had never been on the bubble at any point in his two-decades-long head coaching career, and his first foray into the uncertainty goes his way after all. While we don’t know for sure, it seems like not having key big man Zach Freemantle for two close losses vs. Marquette and UConn was something taken into consideration by the committee. Freemantle’s good enough to play now, and he’s key, but the guy to know is Ryan Conwell, one of the best pure scoring guards in college hoops. He had 38 vs. Marquette in the NCAA Tournament and will be ready to fire this week.
45
The Tar Heels have made their way into the field and not without controversy. It’s ultra-rare to have a team qualify despite just one Quad 1 win, but the 22 wins overall were enough. I remain baffled. But, they’re here, so … can they win a game against a tournament-level team? It basically falls on super senior RJ Davis, who will close out his career as a top-three all-time scorer in UNC history with Armando Bacot and Tyler Hansbrough.
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Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs have become a big bracket mainstay, this being their seventh NCAA Tournament-level season in Dutcher’s eight years running the program. SDSU had an interesting resume, but it proved to be enough to squeak it into the field. Now that it’s in, keep in mind: This team beat HOUSTON this season. It also claims a win over Creighton. The ‘Tecs are as defensively aggressive as you remember, frequently holding opponents under 66, 67 points. The guy who’s unlocked some potential here has Final Four experience: Former FAU guard Nick Boyd leads the team in scoring and assists.
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A year ago, Mark Byington had a team on this list. It was James Madison, which wound up winning a game in the first round over Wisconsin. Now he’s done the near-unthinkable and delivered the Commodores to the NCAA Tournament. Vandy went 20-12, the ‘Dores breaking on through to the other side of the NCAAs for the first time since 2017. North Texas transfer Jason Edwards leads the team in scoring (17.0 ppg), but Tyler Nickel is also one to watch. The guy worth five can give you 3: Nickel averages a team-best 40.6% from deep on six attempts per game.
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There were a handful of teams that were sweating in the 48-72 hours leading up to Selection Sunday, and Texas was chief among them. With seven Quad 1 wins, resume metrics closer to 50 than 40 and three games under .500 in the top three quadrants, the Longhorns could have been left out. Instead, the high-end wins push them in despite 15 losses. Now that they’re here, I’ve got two words for why you need to watch: Tre. Johnson. The freshman scorer is a potential top-five pick and liable to go for 30 if you give him enough daylight. Rodney Terry is also coaching for his job, adding to UT’s urgency as it gets ready to play in Dayton.
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Will Wade was exiled out of LSU a few years back, found a spot who would take him in McNeese and coached ’em up to back-to-back NCAA tourney appearances with a 57-10 overall record. The Cowboys are champs of the Southland and use a by-committee approach. Four guys average double figures, and this team doesn’t have one particular forte, though it is good at keeping teams in third gear. Opponents average 64.0 points vs. the Pokes. Most indisposable player is senior SG Javohn Garcia.
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This is the Bulldogs’ fifth NCAAs trip in the past 10 seasons, and in the previous four appearances, Yale had a 50% hit rate on first-round upsets. James Jones’ program beat No. 5 Baylor in 2016, then upset fourth-seeded Auburn last year. Jones has been at Yale for 26 years, making him one of the longest-tenured coaches in college basketball and among the more respected, too. After losing key pieces Danny Wolf to Michigan and Matt Knowling to USC, Yale is still one of the better teams from a single-bid league (ranking top-75 at KenPom). Senior wing John Poulakidas has been outstanding this season and may have a big moment awaiting him this week.
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The Flames have been in three conferences in the past eight years. They’re the champions of C-USA, but two years ago were in the ASUN. Before that, the Big South. Ritchie McKay has been there the whole time, lifting his program to conference-champions status in four of those seasons. This team has the best overall shot selection of any in college basketball. With 6-4 senior Taelon Peter shooting 73.7% true shooting from the field, Liberty ranks No. 1 in effective field goal percentage (58.4%).
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/Phish voice: Run like an Antelope into the Dance! Run like an Antelope into the Dance! For the fourth time in five years, GCU is the champion of the WAC under Bryce Drew. The Lopes are 26-7 and one of the fastest teams in the tournament. TCU transfer JaKobe Coles came into this program, and the way Tyon Grant-Foster was willing to share the spotlight after being the team’s best player last season? That’s why this team is back on the big stage again.
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The Panthers are a veritable Cinderella candidate led by second-year coach Alan Huss, who guided his team to a 29-5 record as champs out of the Big South. High Point is riding a 14-game winning streak. The Panthers rank top-30 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom, led by a guy with one of the best names in the field: Kezza Giffa (14.8 ppg).
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Takayo Siddle’s Seahawks are 27-7 and the champs of the Coastal Athletic Association. This is the school’s first NCAA appearance since 2017. Senior PG Donovan Newby is a sturdy, two-way point guard at the mid-major level averaging 14.6 points, 3.5 assists and orchestrating Siddle’s ball-screen offense with aplomb. The Seahawks aren’t deep but they are not short on experience.
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Only the third time this century the Trojans have made the NCAA tourney. This team ranks top-100 in multiple predictive metrics. Their coach is Scott Cross, who last coached in the Big Dance in 2008 when he was at UT Arlington. The Trojans are interesting: they rank fifth nationally in offensive rebounding but are in the bottom 70 on the defensive end. The go-to guy is senior combo guard Tayton Conerway, who has a quality stat line over the past 21 games: 14.3 ppg, 4.8 apg, 4.3 rpg, 2.9 spg.
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It’s not Bison, it’s Bisons! Lipscomb is back in the field for the second time in school history. The top team in the ASUN (25-9), Lipscomb is coached by Lennie Acuff. The Bisons are experienced but lack size. They aren’t a great rebounding team, but they also are hard to turn over. The team’s top player is senior PF Jacob Ognacevic, who leads in scoring (20.1 ppg) and rebounding (8.1) in addition to being a 40.1% 3-point shooter.
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The Zips zipped into this tournament after coming back from 18 down in the MAC title game against Miami University and outscoring their opponents 15-4 in the final eight-plus minutes. Now, John Groce’s program is in two straight tourneys for the first time in school history. A year ago, Akron had Enrique Freeman, one of the best mid-major players in the sport. They lost him, but they’re back with a pair of junior-year Johnsons (Nate and Tavari) who average almost 30 points combined and keep Akron constantly in high gear.
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The Colonials wear the crown out of the Horizon League with a 26-8 record. Their coach is Andy Toole, who has brought RMU to the NCAAs for the second time (2015). RMU has four guys who average double figures, led by senior point guard Kam Woods (15.1 ppg). The team is hot; it has one loss (at that one by two points) since Feb. 8, going 16-1 in that stretch.
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We were due to see this school in the Big Dance again. The Griz are in the field for the first time in six years and the third time overall under 11th-year coach Travis DeCuire. The champs out of the Big Sky went 25-9 and have a guy who’s all cash. Sophomore lead guard Money Williams (actual name!) averages 13.1 points and 3.1 assists as the head of the snake. These Bears have one loss since Jan. 18.
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The Terriers only had two winning streaks of three games this season: in early January and last week in the SoCon bracket. The Terriers were the 6-seed out of the SoCon, marking the first time since 2014 that a top-four team in that league failed to win the autobid. (When it was Wofford.) In fact, this is the sixth different team in as many years to win the league tourney. Dwight Perry took over a tough situation two years ago and has done a nice job. Better keep a bogey on junior Justin Bailey: he averages 44.1% from 3 and is very particular about his shot selection.
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For only the second time in school history, Bryant is dancing. The America East champions went 23-11 and are 17-2 since the calendar flipped to 2025. Phil Martelli Jr. is the coach, carrying on the legacy from his father, who did big things for many years at Saint Joseph’s. The Bulldogs are a low-major, but they’ve got size: all starters are 6-6 or taller, with senior wing Rafael Pinzon (39.5%) and junior forward Barry Evans (38.4%) ever-lurking threats from deep.
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The Mavericks, coached by alum Chris Crutchfield, went 22-12 and won the Summit League. Senior F Marquel Sutton leads the team in points (19.1) and rebounds per game (8.0). The program’s claim to fame this season is dirty: The team destroys whatever trash can is in sight after a big win. If Omaha can pull off an upset this week, it will be the most anticipated locker room celebration of the first round.
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For 11 seasons, Robert Jones has done as good of a job as you could ever ask of someone at Norfolk State. The school has four NCAA Tournament appearances in its history with three of them coming under Jones. The MEAC champs are a long shot to pull an upset because they aren’t good at shooting the 3 and they aren’t prone to taking a lot. That said, they make up for it with plenty of players who have good touch from the midrange, the best of them being 6-8 senior Jalen Myers, who is a 60% shooter from 2-point range.
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The first 6-seed in MAAC Tournament history to win the auto bid, say hello again to the Mountaineers of Mount St. Mary’s. The program is in the field for the seventh time in program history, all previous trips being as a No. 16 seed. Junior forward Dola Adebayo is at his best in the paint. This is the second team in this tournament that has a head coach who started out as a team manager in college. Michigan’s Dusty May did so at Indiana, while the Mount’s Donny Lind got his start at Loyola Maryland under the never-shy Jimmy Patsos.
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The Cougars are also dancing for the first time. Coach Brian Barone has more than paid his dues to this point, but beyond that, there’s a great story here. Senior guard Ray’Sean Taylor (the school’s all-time leading scorer) has stuck with this program for four years. He’s scored 1,952 points, placing him fourth among all active four-year players at one school in Division I. He only ranks behind Saint Joseph’s Erik Reynolds, Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IV and Marquette’s Kam Jones. This is a tall team for a No. 16 seed, with four starters averaging around 6-foot-7 and a 6-11 center off the bench.
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Does anyone else feel like tossing on a heavy crew shirt and cargo shorts? The American Eagles are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2014. Coach Duane Simpkins oversees a methodical offense, ranking near the bottom in pace, but don’t take that to mean this team is a slog. It averages 68.7 points, senior forward Matt Rogers (17.0 ppg) carrying the biggest portion of the load.
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The Hornets are the champs of the SWAC and in the field for the first time in 14 years. Coach Tony Madlock has done a great job there, turning the program around in just three seasons. Amarr Knox, a sophomore point guard, plays alongside senior CJ Hines. They’re a great tandem in shot selection, distribution and a reliable handle. It’s hard to turn those two over. This team does have a win over the field: It beat Omaha in November.
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Amazingly, the NEC has had eight different teams win its league tournament in the past nine years. What a sweet story this team is. Sure, the Red Flash are sub-.500, but they’re eminently likable. They’re coached by a guy named Rob Krimmel, who was a standout shooting guard at the school from 1996-00. He’s been coaching at the tiny university ever since, leading as the head coach for 13 years. This is the program’s second NCAA trip ever, its first since 1991. No team in the tourney has a story quite like this, and it’s why this tournament is perfectly sized and beautifully built. It’s great to have you back at the party, SFU.
Lynne Doty is a news writer for politics, health, business, parenting, and finance. Lynne is an avid runner and enjoys spending time with her kids—who are both competitive swimmers—and her husband.