A significant part of Bob Baffert’s dominance over horse racing isn’t the sheer number of victories, it’s the rate at which he wins. Baffert has finished in the top five in win percentage among trainers every year since 2020, and he’s second this year at 33% entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday. He has the best win percentage of any of the 2025 Kentucky Derby trainers while also chasing history as the first trainer to claim seven Kentucky Derby victories. Baffert has one horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, Citizen Bull (20-1), who will break from the rail after the 2025 Kentucky Derby post draw. Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) as the horses with the shortest odds in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman, even though he’s one of the top favorites at 6-1 and just won the Arkansas Derby. This three-year-old Mark Casse-trained colt and son of former Wood Memorial winner Tapit is coming off an impressive victory in the Arkansas Derby. In that race at Oaklawn Park, Sandman rallied from second-to-last in the field to win by 2.5 lengths.
The expert acknowledges Sandman’s potential and how he rallied late at Oaklawn when the rest of the field broke down. However, Demling also thinks Sandman swerved too much down the stretch and “looks too immature to win the Derby.” See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. The Japan-based horse enters Churchill Downs on a four-race win streak, including three stakes victories. Perhaps the highlight was his Hyacinth Stakes victory in late February in which he crushed eventual UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona. Japan starters are also coming off their best showing at Churchill Downs after both Japanese horses finished in the top five at last year’s Kentucky Derby.
Luxor Cafe is one of three sons of Triple Crown winners in the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup, as he was sired by 2015 champion American Pharoah. However, Luxor Cafe’s high marks for pedigree go beyond his father since his mother, Mary’s Follies, was also a stakes winner. Meanwhile, Luxor Cafe’s damsire, More Than Ready, was a Grade 1 winner who hit the board at the 2000 Kentucky Derby. There is more to like about Luxor Cafe than to dislike as a longshot for horse racing wagers. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horses, program numbers
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza