A funny thing happened on my way to writing this 2025 Fantasy Baseball First Base Preview: I kind of talked myself into actually liking the state of the first base position.
Maybe.
To be clear, the first base position reached what we hope was a nadir collectively in 2024, as I wrote earlier in the offseason. A combination of a number of factors – the universal DH and a lack of impact young bats to replace fading superstars like Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt chief among them – led to one of the worst offensive seasons we’ve ever seen from the first base position in 2024. From 2002 through 2023, MLB first basemen collectively posted at least a 110 wRC+ in all but three seasons, per FanGraphs.com’s database, and the 107 mark from 2024 was the worst mark at least in that stretch.
At the top of the position, Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, and Freddie Freeman all disappointed. Meanwhile, hoped-for breakouts from the likes of Tristan Casas, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand failed to materialize, leaving us with both fewer impact bats than we usually have at first base and a shallower pool of low-end options to choose from. So, how did I manage to talk myself into liking the state of the first base position?
Mostly, it comes down to the depth of the position. The top 12 first baseman will feel relatively weak if you’ve been playing this game for a long time, and that’s mostly where the perception of weakness comes from. We’re still waiting for that next wave of first basemen to take over, and I think we’re going to see a number of steps forward that make us view the position more positively this time next year.
I’m still in on the breakout potential for Casas, Pasquantino, and Encarnacion-Strand – and the latter’s severely depressed price makes that even easier to bet on. But once you get outside of the top 12, there are a number of guys I expect better things from in 2025. Michael Toglia is chief among them – and I will be adding him to my Breakouts 2.0 column when we publish that in March – but I’m also optimistic about Ryan Mountcastle getting back to being a potential impact bat, and I could see a big bounceback season from Yandy Diaz.
That’s not to say you can or should just punt the position and only draft late-round options at first base, of course. Because once you get to around 22nd at the position, you start to run out of names worth being optimistic about. Plenty of drafters are going to be choosing first basemen to be their corner infielders, so you certainly don’t want to be left with a situation where you’re relying on Josh Bell as a starting option for 2025.
But there are enough interesting options in the 12-20 range of the first base rankings that I don’t hate the idea of double-dipping for my 1B and CI spots in that range. There’s upside there, and if at least a few of them hit, we’re going to be looking at this position much more optimistically this time next year.
Let’s hope, at least. We need it.
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2025 Draft Prep
Catcher Top Prospects
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .368 BA (38 AB), 4 HR, 1.283 OPS, 12 BB, 10 K
With his imposing 6-foot-5 presence in the left-handed batter’s box, Kurtz invites comparisons to a first baseman from the Athletics’ not-so-distant past, current Brave Matt Olson. It’s not just in stature, mind you. His power comes naturally, playing to all fields rather than depending on him lofting the ball to his pull side, which should allow for a big home run total without compromising his batting average potential. He’ll reach base plenty by way of walks as well.
Scott’s 2025 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2024: Low-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .292 BA (446 AB), 23 HR, .890 OPS, 59 BB, 132 K
Aaron Judge ushered in an era of 6-foot-7 mashers, and while any prospect of that height is inevitably compared to the OG, Eldridge has a better chance than most of delivering league-leading home run totals, achieving the sort of exit velocities that propelled him to Triple-A at age 19. He also strikes out at a manageable rate and generally keeps the ball off the ground, avoiding the most comment pitfalls for prospects of his ilk.
Scott’s 2025 Fantasy impact: late-season look
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2024: High-A
Minor-league stats: .241 BA (116 AB), 2 HR, .690 OPS, 7 BB, 26 K
For the kind of exit velocities Caglianone generates — and we’re talking on the level of Oneil Cruz — he’s surprisingly good at making contact, perhaps too good since he’s often fishing for pitches that can only lead to poor batted-ball outcomes, namely on the ground. The path to greatness, then, is obvious (stop chasing!) but easier said than done and far from a certainty for a player who’s already so far along developmentally.
Scott’s 2025 Fantasy impact: late-season look
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: .264 BA (367 AB), 18 HR, 15 SB, .850 OPS, 58 BB, 145 K
Isaac lost some momentum as a prospect last season, his strikeout rate spiking to dangerous levels (30.1 percent) at High-A and laughable ones (40.6 percent) during a 31-game stay at Double-A. Improvement is necessary and not unexpected given that he was experimenting with a leg kick to generate more power (not that he needed it), but clearly, the risk is elevated now.
Scott’s 2025 Fantasy impact: late-season look
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2024: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .294 BA (538 AB), 40 HR, .914 OPS, 34 BB, 144 K
De Los Santos’ 40 homers were six more than any other minor-leaguer and weren’t a mirage in terms of how hard he hit the ball. But while swinging at 46 percent of pitches outside the zone might work against minor-league pitchers, it leaves open the door for major-leaguers to carve him up completely. We should find out pretty quickly whether he’ll sink or swim, with the rebuilding Marlins offering plenty of opportunity.
Scott’s 2025 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
