As Fantasy Baseball evolves, so do breakouts. Typically, I look for players I think can provide excess value in drafts. That is true of the names below. What’s changed, is our expectations. For many years, Fantasy managers and baseball fans alike enjoyed rookies getting the call and almost immediately taking the league by storm. Now that can still happen (see Paul Skenes). What’s more likely, however, is that a rookie gets called up, struggles, takes time to figure things out, and then breaks out.
- Sleepers 1.0: Frank | Scott | Chris
- Breakouts 1.0: Frank | Scott | Chris
- Busts 1.0: Frank | Scott | Chris
For example, look no further than Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill, the second and third-place finishers in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Neither provided much during the first two months last season but once the calendar flipped to June, both took off. In fact, they both finished as top-35 players and were league winners down the stretch. We saw similar patterns from other recent top prospects as well. Back in 2022, Julio Rodriguez struggled mightily in April before taking a huge step in May. In 2023, Gunnar Henderson didn’t start to figure things out until June. The point is we should be patient with young players and, if the talent is there, eventually they’ll pay off in a major way. You’ll quickly notice a theme with my breakouts below. All of them are either second or third-year players. They’ve had the taste, some have struggled, now it’s time to take that next step.
The first name on the list is actually a returnee from last year’s Breakouts 1.0. Wyatt Langford is a perfect example of what I wrote about above. It’s even more obvious for him. Langford destroyed the minors after getting drafted in 2023. He then showed up in spring training and continued to pummel the competition. As a result, the Fantasy industry fell in love and pushed Langford way up draft boards. I remember him being drafted as a Top-75 player by the end of draft season. The truth is we expected too much, too quickly. While he excelled early at every level, Langford only played 44 games in the minors and then 21 more in spring training.
So why is Langford a breakout in 2025? He got his taste, took some lumps, but then started to figure things out. From June on, Langford hit .263 with 15 homers, 18 steals, and a .796 OPS over 100 games. That’s a 24-homer, 29-steal pace over a full season. A large majority of that production came in September when he helped people win Fantasy championships. Over the final month, Langford hit .300 with eight home runs, seven stolen bases, a .996 OPS, and a 13.2% barrel rate. He started figuring how to make his massive raw power translate into games. On top of his obvious tools, Langford has really strong plate discipline, too. He makes good swing decisions and a lot of contact. I’m entering this season with the expectation that Langford will go 20-20 but he has the upside to go 30-30 in a revitalized Rangers lineup. If he does that, we’re talking about Langford as a first-round pick next offseason.
Langford wasn’t the only one who crushed last spring training. Nationals then top prospect James Wood put everybody on notice last spring when he hit .364 with four homers, three steals, and a 1.213 OPS. Of course, he was already a highly-touted prospect before that but he did everything he could to make the Nationals’ Opening Day roster. Instead, they sent him to Triple-A where he displayed huge improvement from the prior year at Double-A. Wood dropped his strikeout rate from 31.5% at Double-A to 18.2% at Triple-A! You’ll be hard-pressed to find a bigger year-over-year improvement than that. At 6’7, plate discipline is probably the biggest concern in Wood’s game. That made his gains that much more impressive.
Wood was promoted by the Nationals in July and held his own. He hit .264 with nine home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a .781 OPS across 79 games while displaying very solid skills. No surprise but Wood posted elite quality of contact right away. His 92.8 MPH average exit velocity ranked in the 94th percentile. The next step for Wood to unlock his potential is to optimize his launch angle. While he hits the ball very hard, a lot of that is on the ground. If Wood can get his 55.6% ground ball rate down to 50% or lower, he could hit 30 home runs as soon as this season. Lastly, his 29% strikeout rate was also higher than you’d like but his underlying plate discipline metrics provide confidence that he will improve. Wood has a wider range of outcomes than Langford, but arguably a higher ceiling. If everything clicks in year two, Wood could also provide first-round numbers.
Lawrence Butler doesn’t come with nearly as much prospect pedigree as the previous names but does offer a similar skillset. He flashed power and speed in his first full season, batting .262 with 22 home runs, 18 stolen bases and an .807 OPS across 125 games. It’s no surprise but he actually got off a to a pretty rough start, earning a demotion to the minors from mid-May to mid-June. Upon his return, something clicked. In July Butler hit .363 with 10 homers, four steals, and a 1.210 OPS. The peak came on July 14, when he went 3-for-6 with three homers and six RBI.
From the top down, Butler displayed a lot of the skills I look for in a hitter. He had solid plate discipline, hit the ball hard, posted strong expected stats, and had very favorable splits. Butler ranked 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He posted a .261 expected batting average with a .471 expected slugging, both ranking in the 73rd percentile or higher. I also LOVE when a young left-handed bat can hit lefties. It was a very small sample size but Butler slashed .291/.315/.523 in 89 plate appearances against lefties. That gives me confidence he’ll remain an everyday player. Last but not least, the A’s are moving from the cavernous Oakland Coliseum to the slightly more hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento this upcoming season. You can read Chris Towers’ ballpark breakdown here but basically, offense should go up for A’s bats. The early ADP is pretty high on Butler but so is his ceiling. If he hits, 25-25 is a possibility.
It seems as though every year there is one breakout pitcher that everybody agrees on. I believe Spencer Schwellenbach is the chosen one here in 2025. What’s not to like? In 21 starts as a rookie, Schwellenbach posted a 3.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 127 strikeouts over 123.2 innings. All of his ERA estimators supported the 3.35 ERA, too. Schwellenbach flashed immaculate control with above-average strikeout stuff. Among starting pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched, his 20.8% K-BB rate ranked 16th while his 13.5% swinging strike rate ranked 12th.
How does Schwellenbach get the job done? He offers a six-pitch mix that includes a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, splitter, and sinker. Two of those pitches — the curveball and splitter — had whiff rates over 40%. On top of the whiffs and control, Schwellenbach did a great job limiting hard contact and avoiding barrels. Like I said earlier, what’s not to like? Well, there are a few things I should mention. His strikeout rate dipped in September but he continued to pitch well in spite of that. In fact, he turned in two clutch seven-inning performances against the Mets in September. The only other worry is that he saw a big innings jump. Schwellenbach went from 65 innings in the minors in 2023 all the way up to 168.2 total innings in 2024. If Schwellenbach can stay healthy (can say that for any pitcher), I’m banking on a wide arsenal, strikeout ability, and elite control. Draft Schwellenbach as your SP3 but expect SP2 production with an outside chance of SP1 numbers.
Okay, I’m cheating a bit with this one. Technically, Jordan Westburg already broke out. The problem is his breakout was cut short due to a fractured hand. I think he takes another step here in 2025. On the surface, Westburg hit .264 with 18 home runs, six stolen bases, and a .792 OPS in 107 games. That’s already a 27 homer, nine steal pace over a full season. Westburg’s tools are backed up by Statcast, too. Both his 91.1 MPH average exit velocity and 11.8% barrel rate ranked in the 80th percentile. His .281 expected batting average and .491 expected slugging were 92nd percentile!
Westburg actually underperformed his expected stats a little bit and there are reasons to believe he’ll close that gap. It turns out the Orioles are modifying left field in Camden Yards… again. Sometimes, it’s okay to admit you were wrong. Three years ago, the Orioles pushed their left field wall back nearly 30 feet. They’re now pulling the wall back in to create a happy medium. It’s not going back all the way back to where it once was, but there’s no doubt Camden will be better for right-handed power than it has been in recent years (full graphic of the changes below). That should help Westburg get to even more power. And I think he has more steals in the tank, too. He had just six steals last season but ranked 91st percentile in sprint speed. I’m not saying he’ll steal 30 bags but can he get 12-15? I think so. Westburg looks bound to take another step forward and offers strong positional versatility at second and third base.
It feels as though Junior Caminero has lost some of his luster. Make no mistake about it, the ceiling remains sky-high for the Rays’ 21-year-old. Caminero got called up in August last season and was rather pedestrian. He hit .248 with six home runs and a .724 OPS in 43 games. It was a bit of a weird season for Caminero as he dealt with a recurring quad injury. Let’s not forget what he did back in 2023, though. Caminero destroyed the minor leagues to the tune of a .324 batting average, 31 homers, and a .976 OPS. He was so dominant, the Rays called him up in September of 2023 as a 20-year-old. His time is coming, and it might even be this season.
What helps his chances of breaking out in 2025 is a change in environment. Unfortunately, Tropicana Field suffered an estimated $56 million in damages due to Hurricane Milton. As a result, the Rays will be playing their home games in George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ spring training facility in Tampa. It’s not necessarily the Steinbrenner Field dimensions that will help Caminero but more so the environment. Hitting outside in the Florida heat and humidity will undoubtedly help the ball travel. On top of that, Tropicana Field is a tough place for hitters to see the ball, which has boosted strikeouts. Overall, Rays hitters should see an uptick this season while their pitchers take a bit of a hit. Caminero’s long-term upside is a four-category stud in the mold of Austin Riley or Rafael Devers. If everything works out, we could be looking at the next Vladimir Guerrero Jr. For this upcoming season, I’d expect 25-30 homers with a strong batting average.
Dylan Crews had a lopsided debut last season but is still loaded with potential. Crews was the second overall pick in 2023, going ahead of the aforementioned Wyatt Langford. While Crews didn’t tear the cover off the ball in the minors, he did some nice things. He flashed some of those tools with the Nationals in September, too. While he only hit .218, he popped three homers with 12 steals in just 31 games. His speed is clearly ahead of his power and he’s on the perfect team to maximize that skillset. The Nationals led baseball with 223 steals last season and, based on their youth, I expect them to be active on the base paths once again in 2025.
It was a small sample but Crews hit just .218 with a .353 slugging percentage in those 31 games with the Nats. According to Statcast, Crews deserved better numbers. He posted a .253 expected batting average with a .418 expected slugging. It makes sense, too. Crews showed off strong plate discipline, striking out just 19.7% of the time. Under the hood, he didn’t chase pitches, made a lot of in-zone contact, and didn’t whiff very much. I expect the batting average to bounce up into the .250-.260 range. If Crews wants to get to more power, he’ll definitely have to lower his 57% ground ball rate but that wasn’t a big issue for him in the minors. If Crews progresses the way I expect, look for 18-20 HR with 30-plus steals in 2025.
I can’t speak for everybody but there seems to be some prospect fatigue with Jasson Dominguez. It’s been a tumultuous path to this point. The Yankees signed Dominguez as a 16-year-old international prospect back in 2019. Dubbed “The Martian” for his impressive tools, expectations were sky-high from the jump. He went through many ups and downs in the minors but was somewhat unexpectedly promoted by the Yankees as a 20-year-old back in 2023. He popped four home runs in his first eight games and baseball fans everywhere were losing their minds (I might be exaggerating this story as a Yankees fan). Then out of nowhere, Dominguez needed Tommy John surgery, which set his career back a bit.
Dominguez returned to minor-league play in May of last year and performed well. He slashed .314/.376/.504 with 11 home runs and 16 stolen bases across three levels. Dominguez eventually got called up by the Yankees in September, flashed some power and speed but struggled to hit for batting average. 2025 feels like a fresh slate for Dominguez. He’s penciled into the Yankees lineup as a starting outfielder and should finally get the opportunity to play every day. Dominguez’s carrying tools are currently his ability to get on base and run. While he hasn’t displayed huge power yet, I believe Dominguez’s pull-happy approach will play just fine with the short porch in Yankee Stadium. Of all my breakout candidates, Dominguez has the least experience and I can envision growing pains this season. If he hits, though, he has a skill set that will excel in Fantasy. Dominguez is a blue-chip prospect who could go 20-20 in 2025 and maybe even work his way to the top of the Yankees’ lineup.
Masyn Winn had a very successful rookie season as a 22-year-old. He hit .267 with 15 homers, 85 runs, and 11 steals while playing elite-level defense. According to Fangraphs, his 3.6 WAR ranked 12th among shortstops. He more than held his own, and in fact, was moved to the leadoff spot in early June. He never relinquished that role. While Winn isn’t a huge on-base threat, he’s a leadoff man more in the way Tim Anderson was a few years ago. Winn rarely swings and misses. He’s aggressive but makes a lot of contact. His high line drive rate coupled with elite contact skills tells us he should provide a strong batting average for years to come.
The next step in Winn’s progression will be as a base stealer. If any of the Cardinals management team is reading this, please let Winn run more in 2025! I certainly think he’s capable. Winn was just 11-for-16 on the base paths last season but he ranked 87th percentile in sprint speed, according to Statcast. Additionally, he was a prolific base stealer in the minors. Winn swiped 43 bags back in 2022 after stealing 32 in 2021. He did all of that with very high success rates, too. I understand stealing bases is different in the minors than it is in the majors but Winn is a 60-grade runner who should lead off again in 2025. It’s time to let the kid loose. I think that’s exactly what will happen. I don’t expect Winn to provide much power, maybe just 15-17 homers. What I do expect is for him to hit for a higher batting average and more than double his stolen base total from last season.
If you listen to Fantasy Baseball Today, at some point you’ve heard Chris Towers say “Full-season statistics are more predictive than partial-season statistics.” For the most part, I agree! However, it is possible for young players to improve. I believe that’s what we saw from Spencer Arrighetti. Through his first 13 starts, Arrighetti had a 6.36 ERA, 1.74 WHIP while averaging 5.4 BB/9. He basically had no idea where the ball was going once it left his hand. On June 26, Arrighetti fired seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts. Alright, it was against the Rockies on the road but that was a clear turning point in his season.
Over his final 15 starts, Arrighetti posted a 3.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 with a 12.9% swinging strike rate. He severely lowered his walks and let his filthy stuff take over. Arrighetti throws five different pitches but three of them have whiff rates over 37% — the curveball, sweeper, and changeup. There’s no doubt he has strikeout ability, and I trust the Astros to get the most out of him. They typically do a great job with pitching development. We just saw breakout seasons from fellow rotation mates Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. The key for Arrighetti will come down to his command. If he trusts his stuff and can throw strikes, I think an ace outcome is possible. Target Arrighetti as a mid-late round option who has a low floor but also a very high ceiling.
I will admit this one requires a leap of faith. There is nothing in Jackson Holliday’s 2024 profile that suggests a breakout is coming. I just trust in the pedigree, bloodline, and Orioles development. Entering last season, there was a quartet of rookies vying to be baseball’s very top prospect: Jackson Chourio, Junior Caminero, Wyatt Langford, and Holliday. Of the four, Holliday struggled the most. In his 60 games, Holliday hit .189 with five home runs, four stolen bases, and a .565 OPS, striking out 33% of the time. His plate discipline — arguably Holliday’s carrying trait as a hitter — was subpar. His 33% strikeout rate was supported by an 81.5% zone contact rate and a 13.5% swinging strike rate. Holliday whiffed a good amount and did so on pitches in the strike zone.
He was also 20 years old. It feels unfair to use that as an excuse when we just saw Chourio dominate at the same age. Truthfully, 20-year-olds should not be dominating in the majors. Holliday spent a bunch of time at Triple-A last season where he continued to perform well. Upon being recalled by the Orioles in late July, it looked like the game was starting to slow down for him. In his first 15 games after being recalled, Holliday hit .286 with five homers and a .940 OPS. He was still striking out quite a bit but when he made contact, it went a long way. Struggles set back in and over his final 35 games, Holliday hit just .180 with zero homers and a .489 OPS. And that’s how things ended. Nobody really knows what to expect in 2025. I’m choosing the optimistic route. Although we’d like every top prospect to hit right away, that doesn’t always happen. Look at Mike Trout who struggled in his first go-around. He came back the next season, won Rookie of the Year, and finished second in MVP voting. I’m not saying Holliday will do all that, but I think he takes a big step forward. If he does, he’ll provide power and speed with a strong OBP, which is welcome at a shallow second base position.
Just a few years back, Tyler Soderstrom was regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball. While he was solid in the minors, he lost some of his luster along the way. He also had to move from catcher to first base with the emergence of Shea Langeliers. Soderstrom got some run in the majors last season and held his own. He hit .233 with nine home runs and a .743 OPS. While some believed strikeouts would be an issue for Soderstrom, they weren’t last season. He struck out 25% of the time and was about league average in zone contact rate.
Though a small sample size, Soderstrom’s power seems legit. He popped nine homers in 61 games and exhibited strong quality of contact. Soderstrom posted a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity with a 14.6% barrel rate. To put that in perspective, both of those marks ranked higher than Mark Vientos, another popular breakout candidate this season. As I mentioned earlier with Lawrence Butler, the Athletics will play their home games in Sacramento this season, which should be a plus for offense. Playing time is not guaranteed for any young player but as things currently stand, Soderstrom looks like the A’s starting first baseman with Brent Rooker at DH. Power seems harder to find in Fantasy this year but Soderstrom might be one of the exceptions. He should be targeted as a late-round corner infielder who has the upside to hit 25-30 home runs this season.
