2024 Super Bowl pick, odds: Patrick Mahomes, underdog Chiefs sink 49ers for latest Lombardi Trophy



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This is it. Super Bowl LVIII. We’ve reached the end of the road of the 2023 season and all that’s left is a showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs for a Lombardi Trophy. While this game does mark the end of a season, it also concludes a profitable run for us here in this little betting window on the internet. 

I ended the regular season on a strong note, finishing with 29 more ATS wins than losses. I was also 9-3 ATS and straight-up throughout the playoffs, so we were largely able to keep the good times rolling. Of course, it’s always appreciated for those who’ve followed along and hopefully I was able to help grow your bankroll. Now, all that’s left is to pick who’ll win (and cover) the Super Bowl. Enjoy the offseason! 

2023 record

Playoffs
ATS:
 9-3
ML:
9-3

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS
: 45-45-1
ATS: 145-116-11
ML: 174-98

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Nickelodeon; stream on Paramount+)

San Francisco 49ers

-2

Over 47.5

Kansas City Chiefs

+2

Under 47.5

I only picked one of these two remaining teams to actually be in this game and it wasn’t the Kansas City Chiefs. I was on the other side of Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship as I stuck with my preseason pick of the Baltimore Ravens winning the conference. As you and I both know, lining up against Mahomes is a scary proposition and he burned us a week ago. We’re not making that same mistake twice. 

While the Niners are certainly a talented club, it just feels like more of the advantages lean in the Chiefs favor. They have the better defense, quarterback, and coach in my estimation. Kansas City is battle-tested winning back-to-back playoff games on the road, while the Niners have needed to dig themselves out of holes playing at home. On a neutral site and a stage that Kansas City is very familiar with over the past few seasons — Allegiant Stadium, home of the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders — it just seems like there will be more obstacles in the way of San Fran.

I believe the key to this game will come down to whether or not the 49ers linebackers (particularly Fred Warner) can help defend against Travis Kelce, who has been the lifeblood of the offense over the last two playoff wins. While San Francisco gave up the seventh-fewest yards per reception and second-fewest yards after the catch per reception to tight ends this year, Kelce has historically destroyed this defense. Mahomes is 20 of 24 for 255 yards and a touchdown when targeting Kelce in the three games he’s played against the Niners in his career.

I’m also actually kind of surprised that K.C. is an underdog in this head-to-head, but that plays into our hands as the underdog has covered the last three Super Bowls and 15 of the past 22. Mahomes is also 9-0-1 ATS in his career as an underdog away from Kansas City and is 3-0 straight-up in his career as an underdog in the playoffs. As for the coaching head-to-head, Andy Reid is 3-0 ATS and SU against Kyle Shanahan and all of those victories have been by double digits. 

Projected score: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
The pick: Chiefs +2





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