The 2024 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The first leg of the American Triple Crown has always been the biggest and all but four 2024 Kentucky Derby trainers and four 2024 Kentucky Derby jockeys will look for their first career Kentucky Derby win on Saturday. Chad Brown is a four-time Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer winner with two Preakness wins and 16 Breeders’ Cup wins, but he’s still winless in the biggest horse race in North America. Brown will have two entries in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field, Sierra Leone (3-1) and Domestic Product (30-1).
Todd Pletcher is a two-time Derby winner who has saddled a record 62 horses in the Run for the Roses. He’ll have a chance to add a third victory with Fierceness, the 5-2 favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds. The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. The horse will be well-rested come Saturday since his last race was a Florida Derby win on March 30. However, too much rest hasn’t necessarily been beneficial in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Fierceness will have 35 days of rest ahead of Saturday, and just 11 of the last 95 Kentucky Derby champions have won off rests of 35-plus days, or 11.6%.
Historically speaking, the preferred amount of rest is between 14 and 21 days, as 36.8% of the last 95 champions came off a layoff within that range. Fierceness has two defeats across his five starts, and both came off rests of at least 35 days. Whenever you have a horse with such short odds as Fierceness, you’d like all trends and tendencies to be in his favor. That’s not the case with time in between starts for him, so he’s too risky a play in 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, according to Demling. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Dornoch, even though he’s a 20-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Sired by Good Magic out of the Big Brown mare Puca, Dornoch is already a two-time graded-stakes winner. He bested Sierra Leone on a muddy track at Aqueduct to win the Remsen Stakes and kicked off his three-year-old season with a win at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Dornoch took a step back with a fourth-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes, but this frontrunner could be aided by the fact that he drew the rail in the 2024 Kentucky Derby post positions. He was at or near the front in all three of his wins and if he can break cleanly, he’ll have a short trip around from the No. 1 post. That’s a big reason why Demling is using Dornoch to spice up his 2024 Kentucky Derby exotics. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who “keeps getting better and better.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
